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1. COPOM keeps Selic rate at 15%, postponing cuts to 2026

In the last meeting of 2025, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decided, for the fourth consecutive time and unanimously, to keep the Selic rate at 15% per year. This level is the highest in nearly two decades, since 2006, and the decision effectively postpones any possibility of interest rate cuts to 2026, an election year. The committee justified its conservative stance despite government pressure for reductions, citing “high uncertainty” and the need for a prolonged strategy to ensure inflation converges to the established target.

However, COPOM chose not to offer forward guidance on the next steps for monetary policy in its statement, maintaining uncertainty and reinforcing that it will remain “vigilant,” with the possibility of adjustments depending on how the economic outlook evolves. This decision to hold the rate, as well as the absence of signals about future moves, had already been widely expected by the financial market, in line with forecasts from most institutions and the median in the Focus bulletin.

Estadão: Copom mantém Selic em 15% ao ano pela 4ª vez seguida e empurra corte de juros para 2026

2. November IPCA slows and returns to target

The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) recorded a significant slowdown in November, reaching 0.18%, the lowest level for the month in seven years. With this result, accumulated inflation over the past 12 months reached 4.46%, bringing the index back within the Central Bank’s target tolerance range (3% to 4.5%). Year-to-date, the IPCA shows an increase of 3.92%, slightly surpassing market projections and indicating a scenario of greater inflation control.

The strongest upward pressures in November came from Personal Expenses (0.77%), driven by airline tickets and lodging (with a notable impact from COP-30 in Belém), and Housing (0.52%), mainly due to residential electricity and its adjustments, including the red tariff flag. On the other hand, groups such as Household Goods (-1.00%), Communication, Health and Personal Care, and Food and Beverages (-0.01%) showed declines, with highlights including lower prices for some basic food items and the influence of fare exemptions in transportation.

G1: IPCA: inflação desacelera para 0,18% em novembro e atinge menor nível para o mês em sete anos

3. Government sets minimum wage adjustment for 2026

The Ministry of Planning and Budget has confirmed that the minimum wage will be adjusted to R$ 1,621 in 2026. This new amount represents an increase of R$ 103 (6.79%) compared to the current R$ 1,518 and will take effect in January 2026, with the first payment scheduled for February. The adjustment calculation is based on the rule that combines the variation of the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) accumulated through November and the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from two years prior.

Despite an initial projection of R$ 1,627 in the Budget Guidelines Law, the final value of R$ 1,621 was determined after the release of the INPC at 4.18% and the revision of the 2024 GDP to 3.4%. The rules of the fiscal framework, which limit the real increase of the minimum wage, also influenced this result. It is important to note how these adjustments reflect the dynamics between economic indicators and fiscal policies.

Agência Brasil: Governo confirma salário mínimo de R$ 1.621 em 2026

4. Chamber approves bill that tightens rules for persistent tax debtors

The Chamber of Deputies has approved, by a wide majority, the bill that creates the Taxpayer Protection Code and establishes stricter rules for “persistent debtors”, those with substantial, repeated, and unjustified tax delinquency. The text now goes to the President for sanction and is defended by the government as an essential tool to combat tax evasion, especially after recent operations targeting large schemes.

The proposal establishes sanctions for persistent debtors, such as being barred from enjoying tax benefits and prohibited from participating in public tenders. In contrast, the bill grants advantages to compliant taxpayers, including access to simplified service channels and priority in the review of administrative proceedings. This balance aims to improve the efficiency of tax administration and revenue collection.

CNN Brasil: Câmara aprova projeto para devedores recorrentes de impostos

5. Financial market reacts to Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy

O mercado reagiu com volatilidade ao anúncio de Flávio Bolsonaro sobre sua candidatura “irreversível” à Presidência da República em 2026. Na terça-feira (9), o dólar fechou em alta de 0,31%, cotado a R$ 5,437, enquanto a B3 recuou 0,13%. Houve uma retirada de R$ 1,7 bilhão por investidores estrangeiros da Bolsa no dia do anúncio.

Essa movimentação reflete a percepção do mercado de que a candidatura de Flávio, apoiada por Bolsonaro, possa enfraquecer Tarcísio de Freitas, nome favorito da Faria Lima, e aumentar as chances de reeleição de Lula, cuja política fiscal desagrada grande parte do mercado. A discussão do PL da Dosimetria (que pode reduzir a pena de Jair Bolsonaro) adicionou incerteza, com a possibilidade de Flávio desistir caso o projeto seja aprovado, o que poderia beneficiar Tarcísio.

Folha de S. Paulo: Dólar fecha em alta e Bolsa recua após Flávio Bolsonaro dizer que candidatura é ‘irreversível’