November 28th, 2025
1. Progress in negotiations between the government and the provinces on the 2026 budget
The national government has intensified negotiations with the provinces in recent days to secure the votes needed to pass the 2026 budget. According to official sources, the strategy seeks to engage in political talks with governors and leaders of federal blocs, with the aim of securing broad support. The main points of discussion include provincial requests for greater predictability in the distribution of funds, mainly National Treasury Contributions (ATN), pension compensation, and infrastructure resources, as well as a more stable tax system. The Casa Rosada is expressing growing optimism about the progress of the debate and affirms that an agreement is close, especially after signs of support from productive sectors and several provincial administrations. Even so, there are still movements within the interior blocs, which are seeking to coordinate common positions to strengthen their weight in the Chamber of Deputies and ensure that their demands are reflected in the final text of the bill.
2. Economic activity continues to rise, while consumption fails to recover
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) released mixed data regarding the current state of the Argentine economy. On the one hand, according to data from the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE), economic activity grew 0.5% in September compared to August and registered a year-on-year increase of 5%, accumulating growth of 5.2% so far this year, compared to the same period in 2024. Thus, the index has risen for three consecutive months and avoided entering a technical recession. However, the agency also revealed data showing that mass consumption continues to show no signs of recovery in the second half of the year: supermarket sales fell 0.2% seasonally adjusted on a month-on-month basis and recorded six consecutive declines through September, while wholesale sales contracted 5.2% and extended their negative streak.
3. The Government Confidence Index (GCI) showed a significant improvement
The Government Confidence Index (ICG) compiled by Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT) this month registered a sharp rebound of 2.47 points, representing a monthly increase of 17.5%. The increase marked its highest value in the last nine months. Compared to the previous administration, this value is 69.8% higher than that measured in November 2021, during Alberto Fernández’s presidency. Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) stands out, surpassing CABA in the ranking for the first time. Ultimately, the rise in the ICG consolidates a change in trend and reflects a climate of greater support for the government post-elections. Although the overall level remains below the best years of previous administrations, it is a consistent increase as the indicator shows a uniform upturn, with improvements in almost all social segments and in all dimensions evaluated.
El Cronista: Euforia en el Gobierno: sube la confianza en Milei y sorprende el repunte en un distrito
4. Milei will travel to Brazil for the signing of the MERCOSUR-EU agreement
On December 17, the Mercosur bloc leaders’ summit will be held, followed three days later by the signing of the free trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur. Both meetings will take place in Brazil, which currently holds the pro tempore presidency of the South American bloc. The agreement will lead to the creation of one of the largest free trade areas in the world and seeks to position both regions in a fragmented global context. It is an agreement that has been negotiated for more than 20 years, with the debate always revolving around technological asymmetry vis-à-vis Europe, while European countries with a strong agricultural sector have reservations about competition from South American primary products. In this regard, this week France, through its parliament, once again expressed its opposition to the treaty. Milei’s trip to Brazil also has a political component, given his tense relationship with President Lula da Silva. The Brazilian Foreign Ministry hopes that Argentina’s presence will help send a signal of cohesion within the bloc.
Ámbito: Javier Milei viajará a Brasil en una señal de cohesión regional de cara al acuerdo Mercosur-UE
5. The new ministers of Security and Defense were elected
In an official statement, the national government confirmed the replacements for Patricia Bullrich and Luis Petri, elected national legislators who will take office on December 10, at the helm of the Ministries of Security and Defense, respectively. In both cases, members of their teams will continue to manage their portfolios. In the case of the Security portfolio, Alejandra Monteoliva, the current Secretary of Security, will be the new head. Monteoliva has extensive experience in the public sector at the national, provincial, and international levels, and is a person of great trust to Bullrich, who will take her seat in the Senate to lead the La Libertad Avanza bloc. On the defense side, the person chosen to replace Petri, who will take up his seat as a deputy, is the current Chief of the General Staff of the Army, Lieutenant General Carlos Alberto Presti. Coming from a family with a long history in the military, he will be the first military officer to hold the portfolio since the return of democracy.
Perfil: Quiénes son Carlos Presti y Alejandra Monteoliva, los nuevos ministros de Javier Milei