REGRESA

1. Financial record: Brazilian stick market reaches its second-highest valuation even

Brazil’s stock exchange (B3) has reached a significant milestone, recording the second-highest market capitalization in its history. The result reflects the recent appreciation of major Brazilian companies and the growing appeal of domestic assets to investors. However, despite the strong performance in local currency terms, the exchange’s total market capitalization remains below the US$1 trillion mark.

This symbolic threshold in US dollar terms continues to be a challenge for Brazil’s financial market, as it is directly affected by exchange rate fluctuations and the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar. Analysts say that surpassing the historic global milestone will require stronger fiscal consolidation and greater economic predictability, key factors for attracting larger inflows of international capital and boosting the valuation of Brazilian companies in global markets.

Exame: Bolsa brasileira atinge 2º maior valor da história, mas segue abaixo de US$ 1 tri

2. Moderate growth: CNI projects 2% expansion for Brazil’s economy

The Brazilian National Confederation of Industry (CNI) has maintained its forecast for Brazil’s GDP growth at 2% this year, according to its Economic Outlook Report released on Wednesday (22). The projection points to moderate expansion, driven by the extractive industry, agriculture, and the services sector. However, stronger growth continues to be constrained by high interest rates, elevated production costs, and fiscal uncertainty.

The report also highlights a challenging macroeconomic environment. CNI raised its forecast for Brazil’s official inflation rate (IPCA) from 4.4% to 5%. Due to persistent inflationary pressures, the organization expects a tighter monetary policy stance, projecting the benchmark Selic interest rate to end the year at 13.75%, up from its previous forecast of 12.75%. Externally, the conflict in the Middle East remains the main source of risk, as it pushes up the cost of commodities and fuel, while rising imports continue to intensify competition for Brazil’s manufacturing industry.

InfoMoney: CNI mantém projeção de alta de 2% do PIB para este ano

3. Brazilian government allocates R$ 18.5 billion to sectors affected by US tariffs

The Brazilian federal government has unveiled an R$18.5 billion financial assistance package aimed at companies and economic sectors impacted by the recent increase in US tariffs. Rather than creating new spending programs, the initiative repackages existing government measures under the umbrella of the “Brasil Soberano” (Sovereign Brazil) program. Its primary goal is to cushion the immediate impact of higher costs and improve cash flow for businesses affected by the new US trade measures.

The funding will be distributed through a combination of direct subsidies for selected production chains and easier access to working capital credit lines. According to the government’s plan, the resources will come from the reallocation of sector-specific funds already included in the federal budget. The Ministry of Finance will oversee the disbursement schedule and monitor the program’s fiscal impact throughout the second half of the year.

Valor Econômico: Ajuda a afetados por novo tarifaço chega a R$ 18,5 bi

4. Currency pressure: dollar strengthens ahead of European interest rate decision

The US dollar strengthened globally on Thursday (23), driven by shifting expectations for US interest rates and renewed tensions in the Middle East. The rally reflects reduced market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, as well as higher oil prices following attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and logistical disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

The dollar climbed to its highest level against the Japanese yen in nearly four decades, reaching ¥163.44, its strongest level since December 1986. It also gained against the euro, which slipped 0.08% to US$1.1403, ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision. Market consensus points to the ECB keeping interest rates unchanged at its current meeting, although investors continue to anticipate policy adjustments by early 2027.

Exame: Dólar ganha força antes de decisão do BCE e pressiona moedas

5. Oil prices surge above US$96 per barrel

International oil prices rallied again on Thursday (23), with crude climbing above US$96 per barrel. The sharp increase has been driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are disrupting key maritime routes critical to the global transportation of oil supplies.

Higher energy prices are adding to global inflationary pressures and are expected to influence monetary policy decisions in major economies. As oil becomes more expensive, expectations are growing that central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), will need to keep interest rates elevated for longer to contain inflation. The combination of tighter monetary policy and rising input costs has also reinforced a more cautious, risk-averse sentiment across global financial markets.

CBN: Preço do petróleo volta a disparar e ultrapassa a marca de US$ 96 por barril