VOLVER

1. European Commission approves agreement with Mercosur

The trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union received provisional approval from the European Commission on January 9, 2026, paving the way for the formal signing scheduled for Monday (12), in Paraguay. The treaty, negotiated over 25 years, aims to create one of the largest free trade areas in the world, integrating a market of 700 million people.

The next steps involve strict ratification procedures: in Mercosur, the national Congresses of each country must approve the text; in Europe, the European Parliament must examine the agreement and, depending on the legal interpretation, national parliaments may also be consulted.

Despite this progress, the pact still faces resistance from European farmers, especially in France. By contrast, countries such as Germany and Spain support the measure to boost exports and reduce dependence on trade with China.

G1: Acordo UE-Mercosul: entenda os próximos passos

2. Ibovespa slips and the dollar trades flat at the start of the year

The financial market entered 2026 on a volatile note. In the latest session, the US dollar traded flat, hovering around R$5.39, after closing 2025 with a cumulative decline of 11%. The Ibovespa posted a technical pullback, but the overall mood remains one of moderate optimism after the stock exchange rose more than 33% last year.

Investors are monitoring US employment data and the political situation in Venezuela, which affects the oil market. On the domestic front, China’s restrictions on Brazilian beef are also on the radar, potentially impacting meatpacker stocks.

O Globo: Dólar e Bolsa operam estáveis com mercado atento a dados de emprego nos EUA e temas domésticos

3. Food prices are expected to rise in 2026

In 2026, food prices are expected to come under pressure, especially animal proteins. The grain harvest is projected to be similar to that of 2025, but the livestock sector is facing a cycle of lower productivity due to the heavy slaughter of females in previous years.

With a reduced supply of beef, consumers are likely to shift toward chicken, pork, and eggs, which should also push up prices for these items due to higher demand. Although corn production is projected to decline, the soybean crop is expected to reach a new record, which could help balance inflationary pressures in the agricultural sector.

Estadão: Safra menor e carnes mais caras: como devem se comportar os preços dos alimentos em 2026

4. Trade balance closes 2025 with a surplus

Brazil’s trade balance closed 2025 with a surplus of US$68.3 billion. Although the figure is 7.9% lower than the record set in 2024, the result was considered solid by the government. Exports totaled US$348.7 billion, driven by the strong performance of agribusiness, with standout gains in beef exports (+42.5%) and coffee (+31.1%).

On the other hand, imports rose 6.7% to US$280.4 billion, mainly due to increased purchases of engines, machinery, and pharmaceuticals, reflecting strong domestic demand for capital goods and industrial inputs.

CNN: Balança comercial tem superávit de US$ 68,3 bilhões em 2025, diz governo

5. IPCA projection for 2026 rises to 4.06%IPCA para 2026 chega em 4,06%

Economists surveyed by Boletim Focus have raised their projection for the Consumer Price Index (IPCA) in 2026 to 4.06%. The adjustment reflects concerns about the fiscal outlook and the resilience of service prices. Despite the increase, the estimate remains within the inflation target’s tolerance band (which goes up to 4.5%).

As for interest rates, the market expects the Selic rate to end 2026 at 12.25%, indicating a cycle of gradual cuts throughout the year from the current level of 15%. Projections for GDP growth and the exchange rate at the end of 2026 remained unchanged.

Folha de S.Paulo: Economistas aumentam previsão de inflação para 2026