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1. Bullrich leads negotiations to secure votes for labor reform

The ruling party intensified political negotiations in the Senate to secure the votes needed to pass the labor reform bill during the special sessions scheduled to begin on February 2. Parliamentary efforts are being led by Senator Patricia Bullrich, who resumed her activities in Congress by meeting with leaders of dialogue-oriented blocs to organize the discussion, gather technical objections, and consolidate support before the formal start of the debate. In this context, Bullrich defined a roadmap that includes submitting suggestions for amendments to the Casa Rosada and resuming talks with allied senators after receiving responses from the executive branch. At the same time, Interior Minister Diego Santilli is in contact with provincial governors to expand support, focusing on Corrientes and Misiones, whose endorsement would bring the number of leaders aligned with the initiative to ten. However, several governors expressed concerns about the fiscal impact of the tax changes included in the bill, especially the reduction in the corporate income tax rate and its effect on shared resources, while sectors of the opposition questioned why the tax changes were introduced in the Senate and not in the Chamber of Deputies. On the legislative front, the ruling party counts as its own the 20 votes of La Libertad Avanza, 3 from PRO allies, 7 from UCR, and 1 from Luis Juez, bringing it close to the quorum of 37, while the Justicialista bloc and other federal forces have already announced their rejection.

Perfil: Bullrich comienza a aceitar las negociaciones en el Senado para la Reforma Laboral

2. The government reduced withholding taxes on conventional oil

Yesterday, the national government officially announced, by decree, a modification to the export duty scheme for crude oil from conventional fields. The measure seeks to compensate for the decline in production in mature areas and sustain investment and employment levels in hydrocarbon-producing provinces. The new regulations establish a differential regime with respect to the general scheme in force since 2020. It raises the base value from which withholdings are applied and sets a rate of 0% when the international price of Brent crude is equal to or less than USD 65, a rate of 8% when the price is equal to or greater than USD 80, and a sliding scale for intermediate values, calculated using a specific formula. The measure has a direct impact on provinces such as Santa Cruz, Chubut, and Neuquén, which had signed agreements with the national government to move forward with a comprehensive relief scheme. This scheme includes provincial commitments to reduce local taxes and business commitments to sustain employment and reinvestment. In addition, the amendment seeks to improve the domestic price of conventional crude oil, given that withholdings are transferred to the export parity value used in contracts with local refineries. In this sense, it complements provincial strategies aimed at preventing the closure of mature fields and preserving activity in declining basins, in a context where Argentine oil exports are concentrated in the unconventional segment of Vaca Muerta.

BAE Negocios: Milei bajó las retenciones al petróleo crudo de yacimientos convencionales

3. According to the IMF, Argentina is emerging as one of the fastest-growing economies in the G20, while country risk is falling

According to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Argentina will rank as the fourth fastest-growing economy within the G20 in 2026, with an estimated GDP expansion of 4%, behind only India, Indonesia, and China. The forecast anticipates average global growth of 3.1% for that year, which places the country above the international average and several advanced economies. The IMF also projects that the Argentine economy will maintain a similar growth rate in 2027, consolidating a recovery scenario after years of high macroeconomic volatility. At the same time, Argentina’s country risk consolidated below 500 basis points, the lowest level in more than seven years, in a context of improved performance of sovereign bonds in dollars and expectations of greater debt repayment capacity. The decline in the indicator reflects a compression in the spread demanded by investors compared to US Treasury bonds, in line with a more favorable perception of the country’s fiscal and financial trajectory. The convergence between the IMF’s growth projections and the decline in country risk suggests an improvement in market perceptions of Argentina’s macroeconomic dynamics, although the process remains subject to the consolidation of the economic program and developments in the international context.

Infobae: En 2026 la Argentina será la cuarta economía de mayor crecimiento dentro del G20

4. The government promotes the Juvenile Criminal Justice System and declares a fire emergency in Patagonia

A few days before the start of the extraordinary sessions, the national government is moving forward with the Juvenile Criminal Justice System bill, which proposes lowering the age of criminal responsibility and reforming the system of penalties for minors in conflict with criminal law. The initiative seeks to update current regulations and create a specific framework for adolescent criminal responsibility, with measures differentiated according to the severity of the crime, in a debate that has begun to gain support from sectors of the PRO, the UCR, and provincial blocs. The ruling party intends to reactivate a discussion that had been postponed in 2025 due to a lack of consensus, in a context of increased political and social pressure over crimes committed by minors. The bill provides for a system of penalties and socio-educational measures, as well as the creation of specialized institutions for the enforcement of sanctions. At the same time, the executive branch declared a fire emergency amid the forest fires affecting Patagonia. In Congress, this measure is interpreted as a political gesture that could facilitate agreements to garner support for the ruling party’s legislative agenda during the extraordinary session, in a scenario of cross-party negotiations with dialogue-oriented blocs and governors.

Río Negro: Baja de imputabilidad: las claves del Régimen Penal Juvenil que el Gobierno busca reactivar

5. Tender for gas pipeline pipes sparks clash between national government and local industry

The national government deepened its confrontation with the Techint Group after awarding a contract to an Indian supplier for pipes for a gas transport project linked to Vaca Muerta, in a conflict that combines commercial, industrial, and political tensions. The controversy arose after the Southern Energy consortium awarded the purchase of pipes to the Indian company Welspun, whose bid was significantly lower than that submitted by Tenaris, the local subsidiary of the group led by Paolo Rocca. Techint maintains that the award constitutes a case of unfair competition and is considering filing an anti-dumping appeal with the national authorities. The company warned that the decision will affect local production, industrial employment, and the continuity of its Valentín Alsina plant, as well as impacting the supply chain linked to the metallurgical industry. The executive branch, meanwhile, defended the decision on the basis of competitiveness and cost criteria, and refused to validate surcharges on a strategic project for energy infrastructure. President Javier Milei publicly intervened in the controversy with criticism of the company’s position, while officials stressed that trade liberalization seeks to reduce investment costs and accelerate projects linked to the development of Vaca Muerta. The dispute reignited the debate on industrial policy and economic openness, exposing tensions between the official trade liberalization strategy and the interests of local heavy industry, in a context of key decisions on the production model and the agenda for major energy investments.

La Nación: Techint evalúa presentar un recurso antidumping contra la llegada de tubos de la India