July 8th, 2026
1. The government presented its 2026–2027 fiscal plan, focusing on debt maturities and access to U.S. dollars
The government presented the financial program that will outline the strategy for meeting foreign-currency debt maturities through December 2027. At a press conference, Economy Minister Luis Caputo explained how he plans to meet the Treasury’s obligations and made it clear that a potential return to the international market will depend on financial conditions and not on an immediate need. The announcement was one of the most eagerly awaited by the market, as it aims to dispel doubts about dollar-denominated financing and demonstrate that the administration has the necessary resources to meet upcoming obligations without placing new pressure on the exchange rate. Caputo described the program as a “conservative” plan offering various financing alternatives. In this context, he clarified that a debt issuance in international markets remains a possibility, although it is not part of the government’s immediate objectives. The minister maintained that the passage of time works in Argentina’s favor because, in his view, the consolidation of the economic program will allow the country to continue reducing its country risk, which currently stands at around 415 basis points—its lowest level since 2018. For his part, Finance Secretary Federico Furiase explained that the financial needs for the remainder of 2026 amount to U$S 19,200 million, while projected revenue sources total U$S 22,900 million, leaving a positive margin of U$S 3,700 million. Among the main sources of financing are the purchase of $6.7 billion in U.S. dollars from the Central Bank, loans backed by international organizations totaling $4.0 billion, disbursements from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), debt issuances in the domestic market, and proceeds from privatizations.
Infobae: Caputo presentó el plan financiero hasta 2027: “Salir a los mercados es una opción, no un objetivo”
2. The Central Bank released a new edition of the Market Expectations Survey, according to which inflation in June is expected to be 2%
Market expectations regarding the Argentine economy point to a scenario of gradually slowing inflation, although economic activity is expected to lose momentum in the short term. This is according to the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM), conducted by the Central Bank (BCRA) among consulting firms, research centers, and financial institutions. The report maintains the annual inflation projection at 30%; it estimates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June will stand at 2%, but significantly lowers the growth estimate for the second quarter, reflecting a deterioration in the economic growth outlook for that period. Survey participants lowered their estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth from the 1.2% forecast in May to just 0.6%, representing one of the main changes from the previous report. However, projections for 2026 as a whole remain unchanged and continue to anticipate 3% GDP growth. In the labor market, expectations continue to show a gradual improvement. The open unemployment rate for the second quarter was estimated at 7.7% of the economically active population, with a projected decline to 7.5% by year-end. On the financial front, the survey projects that the TAMAR wholesale rate for private banks will stand at 22.50% in July, equivalent to an effective monthly rate of 1.85%, while a slight decline to 22% is expected by December. Finally, regarding the foreign exchange market, analysts revised their projections upward. The average nominal exchange rate for July was estimated at $1,482 per dollar, or $35 above the previous REM. For December, the forecast stands at $1,673 per wholesale dollar, which would imply a year-over-year change of 15.5%.
TN: Inflación y dólar: los nuevos pronósticos de los analistas que releva el Banco Central
3. La industria cayó 5,7% anual en mayo, mientras la construcción sigue con altibajos
Industrial activity once again showed signs of weakness during the fifth month of the year. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), the Manufacturing Industrial Production Index fell 5.7% in May compared to the same month of the previous year. With this result, the manufacturing sector has accumulated a 3.1% decline in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, consolidating a contractionary trend that is causing concern for the private sector and the government. The decline in May was nearly across the board: 14 of the 16 industrial divisions posted year-over-year declines. The “Machinery and Equipment” sector had the most negative impact, with a 23.4% plunge. Within this category, the manufacture of agricultural machinery suffered a 29.6% decline, affected by lower sales of tractors and harvesters. Another major blow came from the durable goods sector: production of household appliances fell by 34.1%. According to the sectoral analysis, companies reported lower domestic demand and growing competition from imported products. On the other hand, in another report published by INDEC this week, the composite indicator of construction activity (ISAC) rose 6.3% in May compared to the previous month. Thus, the index continues to fluctuate, rising one month and falling the next. Meanwhile, the cumulative figure for the first five months of 2026 shows a 2.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025, while the year-over-year change stands at 4.1%.
Cronista: La industria no logra hacer pie: la producción manufacturera cayó 5,7% en mayo
4. The government is moving forward with reforms at the Central Bank ahead of a visit from the IMF
On Tuesday, President Javier Milei led a meeting at the Quinta de Olivos with Economy Minister Luis Caputo, Minister of Deregulation and State Transformation Federico Sturzenegger, and Central Bank (BCRA) President Santiago Bausili, with the aim of finalizing the text of the bill that will amend the Central Bank’s charter. The initiative aims to introduce structural changes to the Central Bank’s operations to limit the possibility that future governments will use money creation as a mechanism to finance public spending. As Milei himself indicated, the bill will establish an explicit prohibition against the monetary authority providing financial assistance to the National Treasury and will provide for criminal liability for officials who violate that restriction. The bill also incorporates a mechanism inspired by the “shutdown” system in the United States. The proposal stipulates that, if Congress fails to approve the budget or authorizes a level of spending that exceeds available resources, the government will be barred from executing those budget items that lack funding. As Milei explained, the intention is to establish an institutional check to prevent governments from resorting to borrowing or money creation when spending exceeds revenue, thereby incorporating into Argentine law a framework that seeks to impose greater fiscal discipline on the public administration. In this regard, Minister Caputo confirmed that the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, will arrive in Argentina at the end of the month at the invitation of President Javier Milei, which, in his words, “will allow us to continue deepening our joint efforts and the IMF’s support to consolidate the progress made in terms of stability and economic growth.”
5. The government convened the political roundtable to coordinate the legislative agenda for the second half of the year
EThe government’s policy committee met again this Wednesday at the Casa Rosada, with an agenda focused on coordinating the legislative strategy for the second half of the year and monitoring the major reforms that the executive branch seeks to advance in Congress. The meeting had originally been scheduled for Tuesday but was rescheduled due to the Argentine national soccer team’s match. The meeting was led by the Secretary General of the Presidency, Karina Milei, who has consolidated her role as the ruling party’s chief political coordinator following Manuel Adorni’s departure; it was also Diego Santilli’s first meeting in his new role as her replacement at the helm of the Cabinet Office. Among the main topics was the package of political reforms that the Executive Branch intends to send to Congress in the coming weeks, with electoral reform as one of its central pillars. The government is working on amendments that include the elimination of the PASO primary elections and the adaptation of the electoral system to the new Single Paper Ballot (BUP) system, refining a bill to enable a new framework for legislative slates to align with a single presidential candidacy, adapted to the BUP system. Legislative coordination takes on special importance because the ruling party will seek to accelerate the pace of parliamentary activity after several months marked by complex negotiations and delayed bills. The meeting also took place ahead of President Javier Milei’s trip to Tucumán to participate in Independence Day celebrations. The following day, the head of state and his Cabinet will attend the Tedeum at the Metropolitan Cathedral.