Back

1. Brazil and the US: diplomat’s meeting opens path for tariff negotiations

The Brazilian government viewed the meeting between Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio as positive. The encounter, held this Thursday (16) at the White House, marked the beginning of negotiations aimed at reducing tariffs imposed on Brazil. According to sources close to the meeting, the governments of both countries expressed interest in moving forward with the talks. Although no immediate decision was made, the atmosphere was one of cooperation. Members of the Trump administration also considered the dialogue productive.

Vieira and Rubio spoke privately for 15 minutes before expanding the meeting to include their technical teams. On the American side, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and diplomats from the State Department took part. On the Brazilian side, Ambassador Maria Luiza Viotti and other diplomats were present. The main topics discussed were bilateral trade and the surcharges on Brazilian products. Further negotiation rounds are expected to take place in the coming weeks.

Folha de S. Paulo: Após encontro na Casa Branca, governo do Brasil vê largada efetiva em negociação para reduzir tarifas

2. Delegations and experts hold preview discussions ahead of COP30

The pre-COP event held in Brasília on Monday (13) brought together 67 delegations and served as the final rehearsal before COP30, scheduled to take place in Belém. The meeting tested the ground for negotiations and highlighted both potential advances and political obstacles. The interministerial gathering showcased the government’s efforts to prepare the country to host its first climate conference in the Amazon. The atmosphere was one of cooperation, but also of caution.

The initiative was part of the new strategy led by André Corrêa do Lago, head of Brazil’s COP30 presidency. He advanced debates that typically take place only during the second week of the conferences. The measure aims to allow more time for agreements and to avoid last-minute deadlocks. In Brasília, countries were divided into subgroups with shared interests, a step seen as essential to narrowing differences and building consensus.

Exame: Embates sobre financiamento e combustíveis fósseis: o que esperar da COP30 após reunião em Brasília

3. IMF raises forecast for Brazilian economy in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for Brazil this year but expects a sharper slowdown in 2026, citing the impact of US tariffs and signs of moderating economic activity. The World Economic Outlook report, released this week, shows that the IMF projects a 2.4% expansion of Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, 0.1 percentage point higher than its July forecast.

For 2026, the projection was cut by 0.2 percentage point, to 1.9%. The IMF’s forecast for Brazil’s economy this year is slightly more optimistic than that of the Brazilian government, which expects 2.3% growth. The Ministry of Finance, however, is more confident about 2026, projecting 2.4% growth. The IMF also expects inflation to reach 5.2% in Brazil this year and 4% in 2026. Unemployment is projected at 7.1% in 2025 and 7.3% the following year.

CNN Brasil: FMI eleva projeção para PIB do Brasil em 2025, mas vê desaceleração em 2026

4. Brazilian harvest expected to exceed 350 million tons

Brazil is expected to reach a new record in grain and fiber production for the 2025/26 season, with an estimated output of 354.7 million tons, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). The 0.8% increase compared to the previous cycle will be driven by a 3.3% expansion in planted area, projected to reach 84.4 million hectares. Soybeans remain the main highlight, with an expected harvest of 177.6 million tons, six million more than in 2024/25, alongside a 3.6% increase in cultivated area. Corn production, across the three annual crops, is projected to total 138.6 million tons, while cotton lint is expected to rise 1.1%, reaching 4 million tons.

Among crops with weaker performance, rice production is expected to fall by 10%, influenced by a 5.6% reduction in planted area, while beans are projected to remain stable at around 3 million tons. Conab also expects to make adjustments in upcoming forecasts, as part of the planting has yet to begin, particularly for the second and third corn crops. Despite regional and climatic variations, the survey reaffirms the strength of Brazilian agriculture, supported by technological progress and the diversity of production cycles throughout the year.

Globo Rural: Brasil deve ter safra recorde de quase 355 milhões de toneladas de grãos em 2025/26

5. Services sector maintains growth streak and reaches new record high

The volume of services in Brazil grew 0.1% in August compared to July, marking the seventh consecutive month of expansion, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The sector has accumulated a 2.6% increase during this period and is now operating 18.7% above pre-pandemic levels, reaching the highest point in the historical series. The result was in line with market expectations and confirms the sector’s resilience, as it continues to support part of the country’s economic growth amid the slowdown in industry and retail.

Among the activities surveyed, four recorded growth, led by professional, administrative, and complementary services (+0.4%) and services provided to households (+1%). The only decline was seen in information and communication (-0.5%). Compared to August 2024, the sector grew 2.5%, while nominal revenue rose 7%, reflecting the gradual strengthening of domestic demand and the continued role of the services sector as the main driver of Brazil’s economy in 2025.

Valor Econômico: Serviços sobem 0,1% em agosto, 7ª alta mensal seguida, e renovam patamar recorde, diz IBGE