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1. Mexico’s economic outlook revised downward

The global ratings agency S&P Global Ratings revised Mexico’s sovereign credit rating outlook from stable to negative, although it kept the rating at BBB, allowing the country to retain its investment-grade status. According to the agency, this is due to the risk of a slower-than-expected fiscal consolidation, linked to low economic growth, as well as possible additional pressure from financial support for state-owned companies: Petróleos Mexicanos and the Federal Electricity Commission. Likewise, a deterioration in Mexico’s trade and economic relationship with the United States could weaken the country’s external position. S&P Global Ratings said it could lower the sovereign rating over the next 24 months if fiscal deficits are not reduced in a timely manner.

In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum said that the Mexican economy “is doing well” and stated: “We’re going to turn things around so they realize they were wrong.” For its part, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit emphasized that the outlook change does not imply a loss of investment-grade status and that it reflects a more gradual fiscal normalization than had been expected. However, the federal agency did revise its 2026 growth forecast, as it now estimates GDP growth of 2.3%, instead of the 3% it had projected in early April.

Bloomberg: S&P cambia a negativa perspectiva crediticia de México y mantiene calificación
Proceso: S&P se equivocó, la economía de México está bien: Sheinbaum rechaza perspectiva negativa

2. Ministry of Energy announces investment plans and leadership change at Pemex

Ministry of Energy presented three tools to facilitate investment in power generation under the 2025–2030 National Electric System Strengthening and Expansion Plan. These include a second call for private generation projects; a call for strategic projects under mixed schemes with the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE); and a Self-Supply One-Stop Shop, through which the Federal Government expects to speed up permit approvals and simplify procedures. Altogether, the plan contemplates an investment of nearly 740 billion pesos and the addition of 32 GW of additional capacity.

In another development, also involving the same ministry, it was announced that Víctor Rodríguez Padilla stepped down as head of Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) after 18 months at the helm of the state-owned company, amid its financial restructuring and the pressure stemming from its debt level and production performance, as reflected in the rating issued by S&P Global Ratings this week. President Claudia Sheinbaum appointed Juan Carlos Carpio Fragoso, until now the oil company’s Chief Financial Officer, as his replacement. In her words, he will continue the work to strengthen the company and the country’s energy sovereignty.

El Financiero: SENER presenta instrumentos para detonar inversión en generación eléctrica por casi 740 mil mdp
Milenio: Víctor Rodríguez deja la dirección de Pemex; Juan Carlos Carpio tomará el cargo, anuncia Sheinbaum

3. Mexico strengthens its economic partnership with Europe and Asia

Mexico is set to renew its trade relationship with the European Union after the European Council authorized the signing of the Modernized Global Agreement and the Interim Trade Agreement, which will be signed on May 22 in Mexico City. President Claudia Sheinbaum will receive António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen at the National Palace to formalize an agreement that updates the bilateral framework in force since 2000 and includes new mechanisms for cooperation, investment, trade rules, and the protection of labor rights and the environment. Mexico’s Foreign Minister, Roberto Velasco, said that this means “Mexico is taking a historic step in its relationship with the European Union.”

In parallel, Mexico and South Korea agreed to strengthen their economic dialogue. President Sheinbaum held a call with President Lee Jae Myung, during which both agreed to deepen bilateral relations and expand trade and investment. In addition, Mexico and South Korea created a Strategic Dialogue at the ministerial level and a working group to modernize their trade relationship, following a meeting between Marcelo Ebrard and South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo. That meeting also addressed the recent tariff increase imposed by Mexico and the potential impact it could have on trade and investment flows between the two countries.

El País: México y la Unión Europea renovarán su relación comercial el 22 de mayo
La Jornada: México y Corea del Sur acuerdan fortalecer diálogo para modernizar relación comercial

4. Mexico opens the door to Canadian investment following trade mission

As part of the Mexican trade mission led by Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard in Canada, Solar International Core Canada and the government of Hidalgo announced the upcoming construction of an active pharmaceutical ingredients plant in that state, with an investment of USD 2 billion. The project was formalized through a memorandum of understanding and includes the establishment of the plant in the Zapotlán Economic Development Hub.

In addition, during the visit, seven memoranda of understanding were signed between Mexican authorities, companies, and research centers from both countries to strengthen the pharmaceutical and medical devices sectors. The agreements seek to promote advanced manufacturing, the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients, the digitalization of health services, and joint research, development, and innovation projects. The mission also resulted in letters of intent in other states, including possible investments in Chiapas, Puebla, and Jalisco, as well as agreements in higher education and cultural cooperation.

El País: El Gobierno anuncia una inversión de 140.000 millones de pesos para construir y mantener gasoductos
El Universal: Sener presenta plan para modernización de gasoductos con inversión de 140 mil mdp

5. Basic household basket costs rise above inflation

In April, an urban resident needed 4,954 Mexican pesos to access the food, goods, and services basket, while in rural areas the amount was 3,572 pesos, according to INEGI. In both cases, the annual increase was higher than inflation for the period: 5.7% in urban areas and 6.3% in rural areas, compared with the 4.4% reported by the overall index. Among the items with the greatest impact were tomatoes, public transportation, personal care, and the food basket. In this context, President Claudia Sheinbaum said that the Anti-Inflation and High Cost of Living Package (PACIC) has helped contain prices of basic goods through voluntary agreements with producers and retailers, as the program includes a basket of 24 products with a maximum cost of 910 Mexican pesos.

At the international level, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that global food prices rebounded in April, with its index reaching 112.6 points, the highest level in recent months. The indicator rose 2% from March, amid an environment in which geopolitical, climatic, and logistical factors continue to put pressure on staple food prices.

El Economista: Mexicanos necesitaron 4,954 pesos para acceder a la canasta básica; se encareció más que la inflación
Expansión: Los precios de los alimentos subieron de nuevo en abril por la guerra en Medio Oriente