Brasil
February 28th, 2025
1. Unemployment rate rises to 6.5% in the last quarter, but remains at historical low
The unemployment rate in Brazil reached 6.5% in the quarter ending in January, according to IBGE’s Continuous PNAD survey. The index represents an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter but is still the lowest level ever recorded for this period since 2012, when the historical series began.
Currently, the country has 7.2 million unemployed people, a 5.3% increase compared to the previous quarter. However, on an annual comparison, unemployment dropped by 13.1%, with 1.1 million fewer jobless individuals.
The informal job rate stood at 38.3% of the employed population, while the number of formally employed workers with signed contracts remained stable at 39.3 million. The number of informal workers declined in the quarter but grew by 3.2% year-over-year.
IBGE also reports that Brazil has 18.1 million underutilized people, referring to people who could be working more than they currently are.
G1: Desemprego fica em 6,5% no trimestre terminado em janeiro, diz IBGE
IBGE: Taxa de desocupação vai a 6,5% no trimestre encerrado em janeiro
2. Inflation rises in February, the highest increase for the month since 2016
The IPCA-15, considered the preview of Brazil’s official inflation rate, rose by 1.23% in February, marking the highest increase for the month since 2016, according to IBGE. The result was significantly higher than January’s 0.11% and brought the 12-month accumulated rate to 4.96%, surpassing the Central Bank’s target ceiling of 4.5%.
The main driver of the surge was the Housing sector, which increased by 4.34%, heavily impacting the index due to a 16.33% rise in electricity bills. This increase follows a tariff reduction in January, when a temporary discount was applied. Water and sewage rates also rose in some regions, adding further pressure on household budgets. Food and fuel prices also contributed to rise.
Despite the sharp acceleration, the result came in slightly below market expectations, which had projected a 1.34% increase for the month.
G1: IPCA-15: preços sobem 1,23% em fevereiro, maior alta para o mês desde 2016
IBGE: Com alta em Habitação, prévia da inflação vai a 1,23% em fevereiro
3. Chamber of Deputies approves bill to reduce small business export taxes
The Chamber of Deputies has approved a bill establishing the “Acredita Exportação” program, designed for micro and small businesses under the Simples Nacional tax regime.
According to lawmakers, the program streamlines the reimbursement of taxes paid throughout the production chain of exported goods, allowing these businesses to recover part of the taxes embedded in their costs. Among its benefits is the suspension of PIS/Pasep and Cofins payments, including their import-related versions for services linked to exports.
The exemption covers essential activities such as transportation and storage of goods, customs clearance, cargo insurance, and container rental, helping to lower costs and enhance the competitiveness of small exporters.
Acredita Exportação is part of a broader set of initiatives already approved under the Acredita Program, which aims to foster the growth of small businesses. The bill now moves to the Senate for further consideration.
Câmara: Câmara aprova projeto com benefício tributário para micro e pequenas empresas exportadoras
4. Lula replaces Health Minister
The Brazilian government has announced a leadership change in the Ministry of Health, replacing Minister Nísia Trindade with current Minister of the Secretariat for Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha.
The decision was driven by dissatisfaction with the pace of progress and challenges in the sector, such as the rise in dengue cases and pressures on the public health system.
In addition to operational concerns, political coordination played a key role in the change. Complaints about difficulties in engaging with lawmakers led to previous adjustment efforts, but they were not enough to fully address the criticisms.
5. Excessive heat and drought harm agricultural production
Hot and dry weather has significantly impacted agricultural production in several regions of Brazil, particularly in Mato Grosso do Sul, where a combination of high temperatures and lack of rainfall has hurt farm productivity.
In areas where soybeans were planted, initial harvest expectations have dropped considerably. Due to insufficient rainfall during the planting period, projected yields fell from 60 to 42 bags per hectare. However, as weather conditions failed to improve, actual harvest numbers have declined even further, reaching just 30 bags per hectare.
This situation has been widespread across the state, with over 2 million hectares affected by drought-related issues.
G1: Ondas recentes de calor e a falta de chuva no momento do plantio provocam prejuízos no campo