1. Central Bank adjusts inflation and interest rate projection for early 2025

The first Boletim Focus of 2025, released by the Central Bank, included revisions to economic forecasts, showing increases in inflation and interest rate estimates. The projection for the 2024 National Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA) was adjusted to 4.89%, above the target ceiling of 4.5%. For 2025, the estimate rose from 4.96% to 4.99%, and for 2026, it increased from 4.01% to 4.03%. According to analysts, higher public spending is one of the factors contributing to these revisions.

The basic interest rate (Selic) is also expected to rise, with projections suggesting it will end 2025 at 15% per year, after closing 2024 at 12.25%. The Central Bank indicates that the Selic will continue to be adjusted to manage inflation expectations, considering the long-term impact of monetary policy decisions.

On the fiscal front, the report maintained the projection for the net debt-to-GDP ratio at 64.45% for 2024. The primary deficit is projected to remain at 0.80% of GDP, while the nominal deficit remains at 6.80%. Despite measures announced by the government to contain spending and increase revenue, achieving fiscal balance still depends on additional adjustments.

G1: No 1º boletim Focus de 2025, mercado estima inflação próxima de 5% este ano e aumento maior nos juros
InvestNews: Primeiro Focus do ano mantém Selic em 9% e dólar a R$ 4,90 no final de 2024
Valor: Análise: Expectativa de inflação piora apesar de juros mais altos e desaceleração do PIB

2. Pix 2025: Federal Revenue Department increases monitoring of transactions, but Pix remains tax-free

Pix, the Brazilian instant payment system, will remain free of fees and taxes in 2025, according to the Federal government in response to recent rumors to the contrary. Despite new Federal Revenue rules expanding the monitoring of financial transactions, the service’s cost-free nature will not be affected.

The rumors arose from Federal Revenue Normative Instruction No. 2,219/2024, which requires credit card operators and payment platforms, such as digital banks, to report monthly transfers exceeding R$5,000 for individuals and R$15,000 for businesses. These new rules are not specific to Pix and apply to all payment methods, including traditional bank transfers and financial apps.

Financial institutions will report customers’ total transaction amounts to the Federal Revenue Service without identifying the recipients. According to the government, the aim is to increase transparency and combat tax fraud without introducing new taxes or costs for users. Reporting will occur semiannually, with data collected in the first half of 2025 becoming available in August of the same year.

Uol: Pix 2025: entenda novas regras de monitoramento da Receita Federal
Valor: Pix não terá imposto em 2025. Entenda o que aconteceu

3. Tax revenue reaches R$ 209 billion in November, the second highest total in history

Federal tax and contribution revenues totaled R$ 209.218 billion in November 2024, marking an 11.21% increase compared to the same month in 2023. This amount is the second highest in the historical series, surpassed only by November 2013. Year-to-date, total revenues reached R$ 2.391 trillion, reflecting a 9.82% growth.

The rise in tax collection was driven by factors such as economic growth, the reinstatement of PIS/Cofins taxation on fuels, the taxation of exclusive investment funds, and the adjustment of foreign assets and rights.

Among the contributions that most impacted the results were PIS/Pasep and Cofins, which generated more than R$ 46 billion in revenue, with a real growth of 19.23%. The Import Tax and IPI on imports contributed over R$ 10.6 billion, boosted by increased import activity and higher applied rates. Additionally, the Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ) and Social Contribution on Net Income (CSLL) posted a combined growth of 12.62%.

O Globo: Arrecadação de impostos atinge R$ 209 bi em novembro, segundo maior valor da série histórica

4. Interest rates and fiscal risks expected to slow the creation of jobs in 2025, says FecomercioSP

Job creation in Brazil is projected to decelerate in 2025, with an estimated 1.2 million new positions compared to the 2.2 million recorded between January and November 2024. The data comes from a study by FecomercioSP (São Paulo State Federation of Commerce of Goods, Services, and Tourism), which represents 1.8 million entrepreneurs.

The expected slowdown is tied to the historical relationship between GDP growth and formal job creation, with economic growth projected at around 2% for 2025. This scenario, attributed to a more challenging economic context, suggests a modest pace of job creation, driven by the impact of fiscal uncertainty on inflation expectations and monetary policy, which tend to dampen consumption and investment.

An optimistic estimate points to the creation of up to 1.5 million jobs, but more realistic forecasts predict 1.2 million new positions. If confirmed, this would mark the weakest performance in the formal labor market since 2020, when the pandemic resulted in the loss of 190,000 jobs.

Folha: Juros e risco fiscal devem frear criação de empregos formais em 2025, estima FecomercioSP

5. New minimum wage of R$ 1,518 takes effect in 2025

As of January 1st, 2025, Brazil’s new minimum wage is set at R$ 1,518. The adjustment, representing an increase of R$ 106 (7.5%) from the 2024 rate of R$ 1,412, directly impacts INSS benefits, the Continuous Cash Benefit (BPC), unemployment insurance, and contributions for individual microentrepreneurs (MEIs). The increase also brings an estimated economic impact of R$ 81.5 billion, according to DIEESE (Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies).

With the new wage, INSS benefits, including pensions and retirement payments, will be raised to R$ 1,518. The same amount will apply to the BPC, which supports elderly individuals and people with disabilities in vulnerable situations. For MEIs, the monthly contribution will increase to R$ 75.90, up by R$ 5.30 from the previous year.

The adjustment is also expected to positively impact the economy, with an additional R$ 43.9 billion generated in tax revenue from consumption. DIEESE estimates that 59.9 million Brazilians will be directly affected by the increase, significantly influencing income and tax collection while benefiting formal and informal workers, retirees, and pensioners.

Valor: Confira o que muda com o novo salário mínimo de R$ 1.518 em 2025
O Globo: Novo salário mínimo de 2025 terá impacto de R$ 81,5 bilhões na economia, calcula Dieese