REGRESA

1. Government publishes provisional measure with financial tax changes

The Brazilian government has published a provisional measure (MP) establishing a series of changes in the taxation of financial investments, as well as increasing taxes on certain types of companies. The expected revenue from this new policy is R$10 billion this year and R$20 billion overall. The measures, adopted as an alternative to increasing the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF), have generated widespread reaction among political figures and the market.

The tax package brings significant changes for investors. As previously indicated by the government, it eliminates the income tax exemption for securities that were previously tax-free for individuals, such as real estate and agribusiness credit bills and certificates (LCI, LIG, LCA, CRI, and CRA). Profits from stocks and derivatives traded in the futures market and “day trade” operations will also be taxed at 17.5%.

There is sharp disagreement between the Ministry of Finance and Congress on this issue. The President of the Chamber of Deputies, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), for example, stated that there is no immediate commitment to approve the measures.

Exame: Governo publica medida provisória com alta de receita em alternativa ao decreto do IOF
Valor: MP alternativa à alta do IOF traz mudanças profundas no bolso do investidor

2. Dollar drops in the international market

The dollar reached its lowest level in three years on the international market this Thursday, falling 0.8% compared to other major global currencies. Factors influencing the exchange rate include Donald Trump’s threats to raise tariffs on trade partners and disappointment over the truce with China. Tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran also play a role in shaping the scenario.

In Brazil, the dollar fell 0.57%, closing at R$ 5.53. According to experts, the country benefited from the increase in interest rates, which boosted the inflow of foreign capital seeking carry trade operations.

O Globo: Dólar hoje: moeda americana cai ao menor patamar em 3 anos no mercado internacional

3. Brazilian capital market records lowest index since January 2024

The Brazilian capital market saw a decline in fundraising volume, raising just R$ 43.6 billion in May 2025, according to data from the Brazilian Association of Financial and Capital Market Entities (ANBIMA). This is the lowest level registered since January 2024, when it reached R$ 21.19 billion.

The result also represents a drop from the R$ 47.4 billion recorded in April, and is significantly below the peak observed in December 2024, when the market reached R$ 101.93 billion in fundraising.

The survey also points to a shift in investor profiles. Investment funds accounted for 54.8% of debenture subscriptions in May, up from 35.4% in April. Financial intermediaries and participants involved in structuring the offerings, who held 64.6% in the previous month, dropped to 45.2%.

Infomoney: Mercado de capitais capta R$ 43,6 bi em maio, menor nível desde janeiro de 2024

4. Record grain production

Brazil may reach a new record in grain production, with an estimated 336.1 million tons for the 2024/25 harvest. This volume represents a 13% increase (or 38.6 million tons) compared to the previous season. The forecast was released by the National Supply Company (Conab) as part of the 9th Survey of the 2024/25 Grain Harvest. If confirmed, it will be the largest crop ever recorded in the country.

According to Conab, the increase will be driven by a 7.1% expansion in the cultivated area. Nevertheless, productivity has been affected by irregular rainfall. Even so, weather conditions have been sufficient to support good crop development. Conab highlights that despite climate-related challenges, production continues to rise. The outlook remains optimistic for the Brazilian agricultural sector.

Agência Brasil: Brasil poderá ter novo recorde na produção de grãos na safra 2024/2025

5. Brazilian inflation falls in May

The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which measures Brazil’s official inflation, recorded its third consecutive decline. Although May saw an increase of 0.26%, the result reflects a slowdown compared to April, when the rate was 0.43%. The data was released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The trend indicates a slower pace of price increases.

From January to May 2024, the IPCA rose by 2.75%. Over the past 12 months, inflation reached 5.32%, showing a slight drop from the 5.53% recorded the previous month. Despite the deceleration, the index remains above the 3% target set as the official goal. This indicates that while inflation is losing momentum, it remains at a relatively high level.

CNN: IBGE: Inflação desacelera a 0,26% em maio; alta na conta de luz puxa índice
Folha de S. Paulo: Inflação de maio vem abaixo das previsões com alívio de alimentos e queda de passagem aérea e gasolina