REGRESA

1. Preview of March inflation rate higher due to food and education prices

The IPCA-15, the official inflation preview index, rose 0.64% in March, compared to 0.78% in February, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The increase was driven by higher food-at-home prices and school tuition adjustments. Over the past 12 months, the index reached 4.14%. Although the figure came in slightly below market expectations, it still indicates inflationary pressure on consumers’ most commonly purchased items. Notable increases include carrots (35.3%), potatoes (8.8%), and regular school courses (6.13%).

For businesses, the data raises a red flag: despite core inflation being under control, the persistent rise in food and service prices may influence monetary policy and short-term consumer sentiment.

G1: IPCA-15: preços sobem 0,64% em março, puxados por alimentação e combustíveis
IBGE: IPCA-15 é de 0,64% em março

2. Brazil threatens retaliation against US tariffs on steel and aluminum 

President Lula has stated that Brazil may adopt trade retaliation measures against the United States if no progress is made in the dispute over the 25% tariffs imposed by Washington on Brazilian steel and aluminum. The statement came after a meeting with the Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), with whom the Brazilian government is seeking to mediate a solution before resorting to sanctions.

Lula argues that the US maintains a protectionist stance that violates international trade rules. Retaliation, he says, could include additional tariffs on American products. This move comes amid a global geopolitical dispute and aims to reposition Brazil as a defender of multilateral trade.

For Brazilian exporting companies, the potential measure represents an attempt to level the playing field in a strategic sector and to push for greater predictability in relations with the US. Even if there is no retaliation from the Brazilian government, the move signals a political willingness to defend national industry in multilateral forums.

Poder360: Lula promete taxar produtos dos EUA caso recurso na OMC não resolva

3. Lula travels to Asia and promises expansion of trade agreements

President Lula arrived in Japan this week with the goal of strengthening trade relations with Asia. His agenda includes meetings aimed at unlocking the Japanese market for Brazilian meat and exploring the possibility of a trade agreement between Japan and Mercosur. The visit is part of a broader strategy to diversify Brazil’s trade partnerships in a global context marked by geoeconomic tensions.

Following Japan, Lula headed to Vietnam, currently the fifth-largest destination for Brazilian agribusiness exports. The Southeast Asian country is viewed by Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a strategic partner, with potential for growth in the areas of food, energy, and technology. The delegation also aims to reinforce political dialogue and cooperation in multilateral forums.

Through this diplomatic push, the government seeks to reduce its dependence on traditional markets such as the United States and the European Union. For the business sector, closer ties with Asian countries could unlock new opportunities in dynamic production chains that are less prone to protectionist measures.

CNN Brasil: Lula chega ao Japão buscando ampliar relações na Ásia

4. Federal Supreme Court indicts Bolsonaro over alleged coup attempt

The First Panel of Brazil’s Federal Supreme Court (STF) has formed a majority to indict former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly participating in efforts to overturn the results of the 2022 presidential election. The decision also affects former ministers and close advisors, including retired military officers. They will now formally respond to charges of attempting to abolish the democratic rule of law and engaging in criminal conspiracy.

The charges, brought by the Prosecutor General, are based on public statements, institution-related meetings, and documents seized during a Federal Police operation. The defense claims there is a lack of evidence and argues that the investigation is politically motivated.

The opening of the criminal case marks a new phase in the inquiry, allowing for evidence collection, witness hearings, and a potential trial. Politically, the case’s progress has a direct impact on opposition strategies and highlights the Judiciary’s prominent role in addressing sensitive issues on the national agenda.

UOL: STF vota por unanimidade para aceitar denúncia e tornar Bolsonaro réu

5. Central Bank projects inflation above target until 2026

Brazil’s Central Bank estimates that annualized inflation will hover around 5.5% in the coming months, exceeding the 2025 target ceiling of 4.5%. The projection reflects persistent pressures on items such as food, fuel, and services, along with the impact of ICMS tax adjustments made by some state governments.

According to the monetary authority, inflation is only expected to return to within the target range in 2026. This outlook reinforces a cautious approach to monetary policy at a time when markets are closely watching the possibility of further cuts to the Selic interest rate later this year.

For businesses, the combination of inflation above target and continued high real interest rates may influence investment, consumption, and pricing decisions. The Central Bank’s warning underscores the need for adaptive strategies in a still-pressured economic environment.

Poder360: Banco Central estima inflação anualizada de 5,5% “nos próximos meses” …