REGRESA

1. Financial market lowers projection for Selic rate in 2026

According to the Central Bank’s Boletim Focus, the financial market has reduced its projection for the 2026 basic interest rate (Selic) from 12.15% to 12%.

Regarding other indicators, the expectation for the IPCA in 2025 fell from 4.46% to 4.45%, while projections for 2026 decreased to 4.18%. GDP growth for 2025 was kept at 2.16%, and estimates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 also remained unchanged at 1.78%, 1.88%, and 2%, respectively. The projection for the exchange rate in 2025 remained at R$ 5.40, with estimates for 2026 and 2027 also unchanged at R$ 5.50.

Meanwhile, the preview of Brazil’s official inflation, measured by the IPCA-15, increased from 0.18% in October to 0.20% in November. Despite the increase, this was the mildest rate for the month since 2019, according to data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The result caused the 12-month accumulated inflation to decline for the second consecutive month, dropping from 4.94% in October to 4.50% in November, reaching the upper limit of the Central Bank’s inflation target tolerance range for the first time since January.

Exame: Boletim Focus: mercado reduz projeção e vê Selic em 12% no fim de 2026
Estadão: Prévia da Inflação: IPCA-15 acelera e fecha em 0,20% em novembro
Folha de S. Paulo: Prévia da inflação acelera em novembro e índice acumulado de 12 meses encosta na meta

2. Federal revenue hits record high in October

The federal government’s revenue reached R$ 261.9 billion in October, representing real growth of 0.92% compared to October 2024 and setting a new record for the month. October was the second-highest month for revenue collection in 2025, surpassed only by January (R$ 301.1 billion). The increase was mainly attributed to the rise in the IOF due to legislative changes, the real growth of 5.54% in IRPJ/CSLL (especially from companies under the Presumed Profit regime), and the increase in withholding income tax (IRRF) on capital income, including fixed-income securities, mutual funds, and interest on equity.

The rise in macroeconomic indicators such as industrial production, service sales, and wage mass also contributed to the higher revenue. From January to October 2025, federal revenue reached R$ 2.36 trillion, an increase of 3.20% compared to the same period in 2024, marking the best performance for this period since 2000. The Federal Revenue Service reported that, without atypical payments, accumulated real growth would have reached 4.84%, and that the government has been recording consecutive revenue highs since 2024.

Isto É Dinheiro: Arrecadação do governo soma R$ 261,9 bi outubro e bate recorde com ajuda do IOF

3. Brazil’s federal public debt surpasses R$ 8.2 trillion in October

Brazil’s Federal Public Debt (DPF) rose 1.62% in October, reaching R$ 8.253 trillion, driven mainly by the issuance of bonds linked to the Selic rate and the appropriation of R$ 85.23 billion in interest. Domestic Federal Public Securities Debt (DPMFi) increased by 0.31%, while External Federal Public Debt (DPFe) rose 1.17%, influenced by the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The National Treasury projects that the DPF stock could reach R$ 8.8 trillion by the end of 2025.
The government’s financial reserve, known as the “debt cushion,” recovered to R$ 1.048 trillion in October, enough to cover 8.81 months of maturities. In the composition of domestic debt, the share of securities tied to the Selic rate increased to 48.19%, while the average maturity of the DPF slightly shifted to 4.14 years. Financial institutions remain the largest holders of domestic debt, with 32.21%, and the share held by non-residents (foreign investors) rose to 10.46%.

Agência Brasil: Dívida Pública sobe 1,62% em outubro e supera R$ 8,2 trilhões

4. Lula approves income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000

On November 26th, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva approved the income tax exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month, one of his campaign promises. The measure also includes a tax discount for those earning between R$ 5,000 and R$ 7,350 per month, and an estimated 15 million Brazilians will stop paying the tax under the new rule. The proposal was unanimously approved by the Chamber of Deputies in early October and by the Senate in November.

To offset the R$ 31.2 billion cost projected for next year, there will be increased taxation on the so-called super-rich, a group of 140,000 taxpayers with annual incomes above R$ 600,000. The law establishes a minimum tax of 10% for incomes starting at R$ 1.2 million per year, charged on the difference if regular taxation falls below that threshold. The signing ceremony was postponed to maximize visibility, and Lula’s speech highlighted tax and social justice, mentioning the unfairness of not taxing dividends while profits are taxed. The 2022 campaign promise was celebrated on social media as “promise made, promise kept.”

Folha de S. Paulo: Lula sanciona isenção de Imposto de Renda em cerimônia marcada por ausências de Motta e Alcolumbre

5. COP30 concludes with climate targets and Brazil Leading the transition path

COP30, held in Belém, concluded with significant gains for the global climate architecture and a notable increase in the number of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which rose from 94 to 122, reinforcing the international commitment to limit warming to 1.5°C. At the end of the session, Turkey was confirmed as the next host of the climate negotiations, with Australia responsible for organizing the event.

Despite the official conclusion, Brazil will maintain the COP30 presidency for another 11 months, during which it is expected to lead the preparation of a roadmap to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and strengthen zero-deforestation policies. In this technical and strategic role, the country aims to coordinate information with the world’s largest energy institutions. The conference approved a total of 29 texts by consensus among 129 countries, covering issues such as adaptation, mitigation, climate finance, and implementation, in addition to registering 120 acceleration plans under the Action Agenda.

One of the most celebrated achievements was progress on the Adaptation Agenda, considered superior to that of previous conferences, with the adoption of pioneering global indicators to measure vulnerabilities and progress. Key approvals include the Mutirão (CMA.6), the Just Transition Work Programme, the continuation of the Global Stocktake, and the adoption of guidelines for the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, which includes direct financing in 2025 and 2026. There was also an increase in the financing cap of the Adaptation Fund and the establishment of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA).

CNN Brasil: COP30 encerra com metas de 122 países definidas e nova sede oficializada