REGRESA

1. Brazil-US: Diplomatic advances amid trade deadlock

The meeting between Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump, held in Malaysia during the ASEAN Summit, marked the beginning of a new round of negotiations between Brazil and the United States. The encounter was considered positive by both sides and resulted in the creation of a bilateral channel to discuss the 50% tariff imposed by Washington on Brazilian products. The Brazilian government is seeking the immediate suspension of the tariffs during the negotiation process, and Lula emphasized his desire to maintain an “extraordinary” relationship with the US, based on direct dialogue and mutual respect.

Despite the friendly atmosphere and the exchange of compliments between the leaders, analysts suggest that the path toward an agreement will be difficult. The United States has resisted the temporary suspension of tariffs, maintaining them as a pressure tool to obtain concessions in strategic areas such as critical minerals and the ethanol market. Meanwhile, international interest is growing in Brazil’s instant payment system, Pix, which has become the target of a US government investigation for its alleged impact on the competitiveness of local financial systems, adding a new layer of complexity to relations between the two countries.

Agência Brasil: Lula se reúne com Trump na Malásia e discute relações entre Brasil-EUA
G1: Tarifaço: delegações de Brasil e Estados Unidos fazem primeira reunião na Malásia após encontro de Trump e Lula
CNN Brasil: Análise: EUA dão sinais de que não irão facilitar negociações

2. Ibovespa hits record high amid expectations of US interest rate cut

Brazil’s stock exchange closed on Wednesday (29) up 0.82%, at 148,633 points, the 18th record of the year and the highest level in history. The rally reflects investor optimism driven by expectations of a new interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The dollar rose 0.42%, trading at R$ 5.38 on Thursday (30). Analysts point out that a lower risk-aversion environment and a potential 0.25 percentage point reduction in US rates have increased appetite for emerging market assets.

The prospect of lower interest rates in the US tends to encourage capital flows into markets such as Brazil, boosting stocks and strengthening the real. In addition, trade negotiations between the United States and China contributed to the positive sentiment. A potential truce between the world’s two largest economies could ease tensions over commodities and global exports, benefiting exporting nations like Brazil.

G1: Ibovespa supera os 148 mil pontos e renova recorde com corte de juros nos EUA
Valor Econômico: Dólar avança hoje com ajuste em expectativa sobre corte de juros nos EUA

3. Market lowers inflation forecast

The Central Bank’s Boletim Focus showed a new drop in the inflation forecast for 2025, from 4.70% to 4.56%, signaling a slight improvement in market expectations. Even so, the index remains above the official target ceiling of 4.5% set by the National Monetary Council. The Central Bank has kept the Selic rate at 15% per year to contain price increases, indicating that high interest rates are likely to remain in place for an extended period. For the coming years, projections point to a gradual slowdown in inflation, reaching 3.54% by 2028.

Expectations for economic growth remain stable and modest. GDP is expected to grow 2.16% in 2025, driven mainly by the services and industrial sectors. Starting in 2026, the market forecasts slower but steady expansion, with gradual improvement through 2028. The outlook reinforces the view that Brazil’s economy should maintain a moderate pace, combining controlled inflation with still-limited growth.

Agência Brasil: Mercado financeiro reduz previsão da inflação para 4,56% em 2025

4. Public debt falls in September, but financing costs rise

Brazil’s federal public debt fell slightly by 0.28% in September, totaling R$ 8.12 trillion, according to the National Treasury. The result was influenced by a net redemption of R$ 100 billion in domestic debt securities, partially offset by the incorporation of interest during the period. The movement comes amid a more favorable international risk environment following the US interest rate cuts and expectations of further reductions, which positively affected Brazil’s long-term future interest rates.

Despite the decline in total debt, the average cost rose from 11.65% per year in August to 12.00% in September, while the cost of new issuances climbed to 13.74% per year, the highest level since 2016. The Treasury attributed this pressure to competition with tax-exempt instruments such as infrastructure debentures and to the still-uncertain fiscal environment. Expectations are that costs will begin to decline starting in 2026, as public accounts stabilize and fiscal conditions improve.

InfoMoney: Dívida pública federal cai 0,28% em setembro, para R$ 8,12 tri, diz Tesouro

5. COP30 reaches minimum quorum and ensures global representation in Belém

Less than a month before the start of the conference, COP30 has confirmed the participation of 132 countries with accommodations secured in Belém, reaching the minimum number required to validate its decisions. The milestone guarantees global representation and strengthens the political weight of the event, which will take place from November 10 to 21. The conference presidency, led by André Corrêa do Lago, emphasized the focus on climate adaptation and the financial support obtained from the private sector to cover part of the participation costs for poorer nations, ensuring that vulnerable countries have an active voice in the negotiations.

Meanwhile, the accommodation landscape in the region around the capital of Pará is beginning to stabilize after months of uncertainty. With oversupply and reduced demand, hotel and rental prices have dropped sharply, by more than 60%, according to the industry. The trend indicates a natural market adjustment and is expected to facilitate the booking of remaining accommodations, contributing to the event’s final logistics.

O Globo: COP30 chega a 132 países com hospedagem confirmada e alcança mínimo necessário de delegações para validar decisões
Folha de S.Paulo: Preços de hotéis e imóveis em Belém despencam na reta final para a COP30