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1. Sectors feel immediate impact of Trump’s tariff on exports

The new 50% tariff imposed by Donald Trump will directly impact more than half of the exports from five strategic Brazilian sectors, revealing a widespread dependence on the U.S. market.

Sectors such as construction materials, aircraft (Embraer), and weapons (Taurus) are the most exposed, with significant sales to the U.S. Ceará is the most vulnerable state, with 45% of its exports destined for the U.S.

Despite these losses, Brazil may retaliate. Although Brazilian mineral exports to the U.S. are small, American imports of Brazilian minerals are substantial (20%), which could justify potential countermeasures.

Folha de S.Paulo: Tarifaço asfixia mais da metade das exportações de cinco setores brasileiros; veja quais
Valor Econômico: Setor de mineração alerta para riscos de retaliação contra Trump e cobra diálogo entre países

2. Brazil prepares tax exemptions to attract data center investments

The federal government is planning to launch a national policy to attract data centers by offering a one-year exemption from federal taxes (import duties, PIS, Cofins, IPI) for major tech companies, particularly on high-performance equipment and chips. The initiative aims to attract up to R$ 2 trillion in infrastructure investments over the next 10 years, positioning Brazil as a digital and AI hub.

However, experts warn of the risk that Brazil could become merely a low-cost operations base, without real technology transfer or intellectual property generation, citing the Manaus Free Trade Zone as a precedent.

The cost of the measure has not yet been disclosed, and the exemptions will only apply in 2026, due to the tax reform scheduled for 2027. The proposal is under review and may be submitted to Congress later this year.

Folha de S.Paulo: Política de data centers prevê isenção de impostos federais para big techs por um ano

3. With improved revenue, government releases R$ 20B and revises deficit

Driven by higher-than-expected income tax revenue and anticipated proceeds from the pre-salt oil auction, the government reduced its spending freeze from R$ 31.3 billion to R$ 10.7 billion, freeing up R$ 20.6 billion for ministries and government agencies. The bimonthly report also revised the primary deficit estimate to R$ 26.3 billion in 2024, which is R$ 4.7 billion below the lower limit of the fiscal target. The entire spending freeze was reversed, while the budget block increased slightly to R$ 10.7 billion.

According to the government, the figures reflect both spending control measures and improved revenue collection, such as the Financial Operations Tax (IOF), which is expected to generate R$ 8.4 billion by year-end. Despite the improvement, the fiscal result still includes extraordinary factors such as court-ordered debt payments (precatórios) and INSS reimbursements, which raise the “real” deficit to R$ 74.9 billion (0.6% of GDP). The economic team reaffirmed its commitment to a zero-deficit target in 2025 and a surplus of 0.25% of GDP in 2026.

Valor Econômico: Receita projetada sobe, e governo reduz contenção

4. Credit and confidence drive consumption, but economic situation still requires caution

The Consumer Intention Index (ICF) rose by 0.6% in July, reaching 103.2 points, driven by increased access to credit and positive job prospects. All components of the index showed growth, with highlights for “consumption outlook” and “access to credit.”

However, the indicator still shows a slight decline of 0.1% compared to July 2024, reflecting drops in “current income” and “perception of durable goods purchases.”

Despite the recovery, consumption remains moderate due to high interest rates, which make credit more expensive and limit higher-value purchases. Experts emphasize that the decline in the intention to purchase durable goods is expected, given the impact of the Selic rate on household budgets.

Valor Econômico: Crédito impulsiona, e indicador de consumo volta a subir, aponta CNC

5. Online banking usage grows with Pix and financial inclusion

The number of people using the internet to access banks and financial institutions in Brazil reached 119.6 million in 2024, an increase of 22.5 million since 2022, representing 71.2% of internet users. This growth is driven by greater financial inclusion and, above all, by the consolidation of Pix, which now has nearly 160 million registered individuals, strengthening digital financial inclusion. Access to online public services and e-commerce also saw significant growth.

Internet usage habits show that voice/video calls have surpassed messaging as the most common activity. Although not covered by IBGE research, the online betting (“bets”) market is a rapidly expanding sector. These data from IBGE’s Continuous PNAD survey highlight the fast-paced digital transformation of Brazilian consumers, with implications for business strategies and regulation.

The success of Pix has already triggered an international reaction. The U.S. government, under Donald Trump, has launched an investigation claiming that the Brazilian system harms American companies like Visa and Mastercard. The measure is part of a broader package of trade tensions between the two countries and reignites the debate over technological sovereignty and global competition in the financial sector.

Agência Brasil: Número de pessoas que acessam banco online cresce 22 milhões em 2 anos
G1: PIX: Febraban diz que investigação dos EUA deve-se a ‘informação incompleta’ sobre ‘objetivos e funcionamento’ do sistema