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1. IMF raises Brazil’s 2025 growth forecast to 2.3%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its 2025 growth projection for the Brazilian economy, now expecting an expansion of 2.3%. This upgrade reflects the institution’s growing optimism about the country’s economic recovery and stability, taking into account factors such as domestic market resilience and recently adopted economic policies. The new estimate points to a favorable environment for investment and development.

The IMF’s optimistic forecast is an important signal for the global market and investors, reinforcing the view that Brazil is on a path of sustainable growth. In its statement, containing preliminary impressions from the IMF’s annual report on the Brazilian economy, the Fund praised the Central Bank’s interest-rate policy aimed at cooling demand and controlling inflation, and commended the authorities’ efforts to improve the fiscal position while meeting social-spending needs.

Exame: FMI eleva projeção de crescimento do Brasil para 2,3% em 2025

2. Brazilian GDP exceeds expectations and grows 1.4% in the first quarter

The Brazilian economy recorded a robust 1.4% growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the first quarter of 2025, according to data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The result, which surpassed market forecasts, indicates a consistent recovery in economic activity, driven by various sectors. The positive GDP performance reflects a scenario of growing confidence and investment, signaling a heating up of the national economy.

Boosted by the strong performance of agribusiness, the result outpaced the growth of all economies within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the European Union, and the G7, the group of the world’s seven largest economies. Brazil’s economic growth also outperformed that of the United States, which recorded a 0.1% contraction in the first three months of the year.

G1: PIB do Brasil cresce mais do que EUA, União Europeia e G7 no 1º trimestre

3. Brazil’s National Treasury raises US$2.75 billion abroad

The National Treasury conducted a US$2.75 billion fundraising operation in the international market. The transaction, which reflects foreign investors’ confidence in the Brazilian economy, saw the highest demand in seven years, exceeding the amount offered by more than four times. This result highlights the attractiveness of Brazilian bonds and a lower perceived risk among international creditors.

The fundraising was essential for financing public debt and managing the government’s accounts, contributing to the country’s fiscal stability. The strong demand and favorable conditions achieved in the operation point to a positive outlook for Brazil in the global capital markets. It reinforces the perception of Brazil as an attractive investment destination, likely to generate more business opportunities, partnerships, and expansion for companies operating in the region.

Agência Brasil: Tesouro capta US$ 2,75 bi no exterior com maior demanda em sete anos

4. Macron calls for “mirror clauses” in EU-Mercosur deal

French President Emmanuel Macron has reiterated his demand for the inclusion of “mirror clauses” in the trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur, posing a new obstacle to the treaty’s ratification. These clauses require that imported products from Mercosur meet the same environmental and social standards applied to European producers. Macron’s position reflects France’s growing concern over unfair competition and environmental impact.

The French demand adds complexity to the negotiations and could further delay the agreement’s implementation. For Brazil and other Mercosur countries, the inclusion of such clauses may require significant adjustments to their production chains, sparking internal debate. The agreement’s finalization will depend on the ability of both sides to reach a consensus that satisfies the expectations of all stakeholders involved.

CNN Brasil: Macron pede cláusula-espelho para avanço do acordo Mercosul-UE

5. 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum put pressure on Brazilian companies

New 50% tariffs imposed by the United States on steel and aluminum imports have come into effect. As the second-largest exporter of steel to the US, Brazil now faces a challenging scenario with the rate doubling from the previous 25%. This measure, combined with weak demand in China, is pushing Brazil’s steel and mining sectors into a new cycle of adjustments.

Analysts highlight that the operating environment is unfavorable, with falling iron ore prices due to China’s economic slowdown and downward pressure on steel prices within Brazil. This scenario demands that Brazilian companies adopt adaptive strategies to mitigate the impact of higher tariffs and weakened global demand.

InfoMoney: Tarifa de 50% sobre aço e alumínio entra em vigor; como afeta empresas brasileiras?