1. Inflation for 2025 rises again, reaching 5.68%

This week’s Boletim Focus revealed an increase in the inflation forecast for 2025, rising from 5.65% to 5.68% after a week of stability. For 2026, the IPCA expectation remained at 4.40%, still above the Central Bank’s official target. Meanwhile, projections for 2027 and 2028 remained stable at 4% and 3.75%, respectively.

Other economic indicators, such as GDP and the Selic rate, showed no changes. The GDP growth estimate remains at 2.01% for 2025 and 1.70% for 2026. The forecast for the Selic rate also remained unchanged, projected at 15% for this year and 12.50% for 2026, reflecting market caution amid the inflationary scenario.

Exame: Boletim Focus: projeção de inflação para 2025 volta a subir e chega a 5,68%

2. Government launches “Worker’s Credit” program

The “Worker’s Credit” program has been launched to expand access to payroll-deductible loans for private-sector employees. This initiative could benefit around 39 million formally employed professionals and has the potential to generate up to R$ 120 billion in new loan operations. Previously, this type of credit was limited to public servants, retirees, and pensioners, who already had access to more favorable conditions.

The goal is to offer credit with reduced interest rates, ranging from 2.5% to 3% per month, compared to the current 6%. To ensure greater payment security, the initial process will use data from eSocial, which centralizes workers’ payroll information. In case of dismissal, part of the FGTS (10% of the available balance and 40% of the severance penalty) may be used as collateral, although banks will have the flexibility to negotiate these terms.

Additionally, strict criteria have been established for credit analysis, considering the worker’s profile, length of employment, salary range, company affiliation, creditworthiness, and the employer’s financial standing. The program will also allow the migration of existing loan contracts, provided that income commitment does not exceed 35%, enabling debt refinancing under better conditions and helping to prevent over-indebtedness.

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3. Industrial production remains stable

Brazil’s industrial production remained unchanged (0.0%) in January 2025 compared to December 2024, halting three consecutive months of decline, during which it accumulated a 1.2% loss. However, compared to January 2024, the industry recorded a 1.4% increase, marking the eighth consecutive positive result in this comparison. The 12-month accumulated index rose by 2.9%, though at a slower pace than in previous months. Among the sectors driving growth, machinery and equipment (6.9%) and motor vehicles (3.0%) stood out, while extractive industries (-2.4%) had the most significant negative impact.

Among major economic categories, capital goods (4.5%) and durable consumer goods (4.4%) saw the highest growth in January, reversing previous declines. On the other hand, the intermediate goods segment was the only one to contract (-1.4%), offsetting the 0.5% increase observed in the previous month. The three-month moving average fell by 0.3%, with the intermediate goods and semi- and non-durable consumer goods sectors showing the weakest performance.

Compared to January 2024, the industry grew by 1.4%, with three of the four major economic categories recording gains. The durable consumer goods sector was the highlight, with a 16.6% increase driven by higher production of automobiles and home appliances. The capital goods sector also grew by 8.2%, supported by increased machinery and equipment manufacturing. However, the extractive industries (-5.2%) and petroleum derivatives sector (-3.8%) experienced significant declines, negatively impacting overall industrial performance.

Agência IBGE: Produção industrial registra variação nula (0,0%) em janeiro

4. 2025 income tax refund: PIX ensures priority, but with new rules

The Federal Revenue Service has announced changes to the 2025 Income Tax refund queue. Taxpayers who choose to receive their refund via PIX will continue to have priority, but they must now also use the pre-filled tax return to move ahead in the queue. The filing period begins on March 17 and ends on May 30, with earlier submissions increasing the chances of receiving a refund in the first batches.

The refund schedule follows five batches, with the first set for May 30 and the last for September 30. However, priority remains based on existing rules: seniors over 80 are first in line, followed by seniors aged 60-79, individuals with serious illnesses or disabilities, teachers, and now, those who use both the pre-filled return and PIX refund option.

The new strategy aims to streamline payments and encourage the use of digital tools, making the process more efficient and secure. Taxpayers who choose only one of the criteria (PIX or the pre-filled return) will still receive priority but will not be at the top of the list.

O Globo: Imposto de Renda 2025: Quem optar por receber via PIX terá prioridade na restituição

5. Brazil commits to promoting a sustainable economy

Brazil is positioning itself as a global leader in sustainability, as highlighted by Márcio Elias Rosa, Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC), during the launch of the Sustainable Business COP 30. The event marked the Brazilian government’s commitment – represented by President Lula and Minister Geraldo Alckmin – to fostering a sustainable economy by integrating economic growth with environmental preservation. With COP 30 set to take place in Belém, Brazil reaffirms its ability to engage productive sectors and economic entities in meeting international climate agreements.

The secretary emphasized that Brazil is well-prepared to lead the sustainability agenda due to advancements in its industrial policies and recent economic growth. The Nova Indústria Brasil (NIB) initiative aims to make national industries more sustainable and competitive, strengthening the country’s position on the global stage. Additionally, Brazil stands out for its use of renewable energy and its ability to produce goods with lower pollutant emissions, serving as a model for sustainable development worldwide.

The Brazilian productive sector is also taking a leading role in the climate agenda, as demonstrated by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI), which heads the Sustainable Business COP 30 initiative. The goal is to showcase private sector contributions to emissions reduction, bioeconomy advancement, and energy transition. Ricardo Alban, President of CNI, emphasized that Brazilian businesses are committed to this transformation and are counting on regulatory support to establish Brazil as a global benchmark in sustainability and green innovation.

Agência Gov: MDIC: Brasil está preparado para liderar a pauta da sustentabilidade na COP 30