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1. Copom raises basic interest rate to 14.75% per year

The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) has raised Brazil’s benchmark interest rate (Selic) to 14.75% per year. This is the highest rate in nearly 20 years, reflecting the ongoing inflationary pressure in the country. The decision aims to curb rising prices, even though it may impact economic growth.

The increase in interest rates has several consequences, such as making credit more expensive for businesses and consumers, which can slow down economic activity. However, according to Copom, the measure is necessary to ensure long-term economic stability by controlling inflation and maintaining investor confidence. The expectation is that, once inflation is under control, the Central Bank may begin a cycle of interest rate cuts in the future.

G1: Copom eleva taxa de juros para 14,75% ao ano, maior patamar em quase 20 anos

2. Industrial production grows 1.2%

Brazil’s industrial production in March was surprising, recording a 1.2% increase, the highest since June 2024 and well above analysts’ expectations of 0.3%. The result, released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), broke a five-month streak without significant gains in the sector. Growth was driven mainly by the coke, petroleum products, and biofuels segment, as well as the extractive and automotive industries. This broad-based positive performance across most industrial sectors suggests a recovery after a period of sluggish activity.

Despite the strong March numbers, economists still forecast a slowdown in industrial activity starting in the second quarter of 2025. The expectation is that tighter monetary policy, marked by the increase in Brazil’s basic interest rate (Selic), will negatively affect the sector, especially in terms of investment. Additionally, the uncertain global economic outlook is cited as another factor for caution. However, some analysts argue that the resilience seen in the first quarter and possibly boosted by strong performance in agribusiness may partially offset the anticipated negative impacts.

O Globo: Produção industrial cresce 1,2% em março, bem acima das expectativas

3. Trade balance posts surplus of USD 8.15 billion

Brazil’s trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 8.15 billion in April 2025. While this marks the fourth-highest result for the month in history, it represents a 3.3% decline compared to April 2024. The drop in commodity prices contributed to the decrease in surplus, despite increased exports of certain goods such as beef, vehicles, and pig iron.

Both exports and imports reached record levels in April 2025. Exports totaled USD 30.409 billion, a 0.3% increase year-over-year and the highest value since 1989. Imports amounted to USD 22.256 billion, up 1.6% from the previous year. The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) projects a trade surplus of USD 70.2 billion for 2025, although that estimate may be revised due to global economic factors.

Agência Brasil: Balança comercial tem superávit de US$ 8,15 bilhões em abril

4. Brazil and China set to sign 16 agreements

Brazil and China are expected to sign 16 agreements during President Lula’s upcoming visit to Beijing. The trip, taking place this month, aims to strengthen bilateral relations and boost cooperation across various sectors, including trade, investment, technology, and infrastructure. The agreements will cover areas such as energy, agriculture, health, education, and culture, highlighting the deepening of the strategic partnership between the two nations.

President Lula’s visit is seen as a key moment for resuming high-level dialogue and expanding economic ties. China is Brazil’s largest trading partner, and the new agreements are expected to create opportunities for both countries. The trip will also address global issues such as climate change, where Brazil and China share common positions.

Agência Brasil: Brasil e China devem fechar 16 acordos em nova visita de Lula a Pequim

5. Brazil improves in Global Human Development Index

Brazil climbed five spots in the global Human Development Index (HDI) ranking, reaching 84th place out of 193 countries, with an HDI score of 0.786, classified as “high human development.” The improvement reflects gains in life expectancy at birth and GDP per capita, although progress in access to education has been more modest.

The report, published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), highlights a global slowdown in HDI progress and rising global inequalities. It also addresses disputes in global trade and the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market, expressing optimism about productivity growth, while raising concerns over potential job displacement.

Valor Econômico: Renda ajuda, e Brasil melhora em IDH global