REGRESA

1. War in the Middle East opens opportunity for Brazil to expand oil exports

The war in the Middle East has put pressure on the global oil supply and created opportunities for other producers to increase their exports. Brazil could be among the countries best positioned to sell more abroad and replace part of the supply coming from the region, according to Roberto Ardenghy, president of IBP (Brazilian Institute of Oil, Gas and Biofuels).

According to him, this potential depends on expanding the exploration of reserves. Brazil would have enough oil for only another 13 years, a timeframe considered short in the industry. The alternative lies in new exploration frontiers, such as the Pelotas Basin in Rio Grande do Sul and, above all, the basins of the Equatorial Margin in Brazil’s North and Northeast regions.

The executive believes that the reduction in supply from the Middle East serves as a warning for global energy security and could accelerate initiatives in Brazil. He advocates for faster licensing processes, while maintaining environmental regulations, to make production viable for decades.

CNN Brasil: Brasil deve produzir e exportar mais petróleo por guerra no Oriente Médio

2. GDP grows 2.3% in 2025 and slows amid high interest rate

Brazil’s economy slowed in 2025 and ended the year with growth of 2.3%, according to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released Tuesday (3) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). It was the fifth consecutive year of expansion, but the lowest rate in five years, following four years with growth of 3% or more (3.4% in 2024). The result comes amid a high-interest-rate environment aimed at containing inflation: in September 2024, the Central Bank began a cycle of increases in the benchmark interest rate, the Selic, which reached 15% per year in June 2025 and has remained at that level, making credit more expensive and reducing consumption and investment.

The trajectory in 2025 showed growth concentrated at the beginning of the year, driven by a record grain harvest and the agricultural sector, which expanded 11.7% and was the main contributor to GDP, alongside the extractive industry, which grew 8.6% due to increased oil and gas production. Household consumption rose 1.3% (well below the 5.1% recorded in 2024), and investments grew 2.9%, also slowing. For 2026, the outlook carries uncertainties, including the possible effects of the war in Iran on inflation and interest rates. Even so, growth is still expected, with forecasts of 1.82% in the market median (Boletim Focus) and 2.3% from the Secretariat of Economic Policy at the Ministry of Finance.

Folha de S. Paulo: PIB desacelera e fecha 2025 com alta de 2,3%, menor taxa em 5 anos
Estadão: Economia brasileira desacelera e cresce 2,3% em 2025

3. Financial market lowers Selic forecast to 12% in 2026

Market analysts consulted by the Central Bank lowered their projections for Brazil’s benchmark interest rate (Selic) and the exchange rate in 2026, according to the Boletim Focus released this week. The estimate for the Selic rate fell from 12.13% to 12%, while the dollar exchange rate declined from R$5.45 to R$5.42. The forecast for Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 was maintained at 1.82%.

Regarding inflation, the projection for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for 2026 remained at 3.91%, with a slight adjustment for 2027 from 3.80% to 3.79%. For 2028 and 2029, expectations remain at 3.50%. In terms of growth, Boletim Focus kept the GDP forecast for 2027 at 1.80% and the estimates for 2028 and 2029 at 2%. In the interest rate scenario, projections remain at 10.50% for 2027, 10% for 2028, and 9.5% for 2029. For the exchange rate, expectations remain at R$5.50 for 2027 and 2028, and fell from R$5.52 to R$5.50 in 2029.

Exame: Focus: mercado reduz projeção da Selic a 12% e do dólar a R$ 5,42 em 2026

4. Micro, small, and médium-sized enterprises to gain access to export credit

Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies has approved a bill aimed at facilitating access to export credit for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. The proposal creates the Brazilian Official Export Credit Support System, designed to integrate the Export Financing Program (Proex) with initiatives from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES). Among the changes, it removes the previously required minimum term for applying the Foreign Trade Operations Guarantee Fund (FGCE) in cases of commercial risk – previously restricted to operations with a total term longer than two years – and expands the pre-shipment financing period for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises from 180 to 750 days.

The bill also allows private financiers and insurers to be accredited as operators in indirect modalities and provides for the creation of an online portal to request official support, without directly or indirectly impacting federal government revenues or expenditures. As the text had already been approved by the Senate, the bill now moves to presidential sanction. The Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services classifies the measure as a priority to expand credit mechanisms for Brazilian exporters, especially smaller businesses.

Estadão: Câmara aprova projeto que facilita acesso de pequenas e médias empresas a crédito de exportação

5. Brazil creates 112,300 formal Jobs in January, exceeding market forecasts

Brazil’s formal labor market started 2026 with a stronger-than-expected result: the country created 112,334 formal jobs in January, with a balance of 2,208,030 hires and 2,095,696 layoffs. The figure surpassed economists’ projections, which estimated the creation of 92,000 to 95,000 positions. Despite the positive performance, experts note that the macroeconomic environment suggests a gradual moderation in hiring throughout the year, following a weaker-than-expected December and a rebound at the start of the year.

Industry and construction led job creation in January, with 54,991 and 50,545 new positions, respectively, followed by services (40,525) and agriculture (23,037). Commerce was the only sector with a negative balance, losing 56,800 jobs. The data also show modest wage growth and, in real terms, a 0.1% decline in the average starting salary in January. The total number of formal employment contracts stands at 48.6 million, with projections of around 900,000 formal jobs to be created in 2026, with unemployment expected to end the year at 5.6%.

InfoMoney: Criação de emprego supera projeção no início do ano após quebra em dezembro