July 10th, 2026
1. USMCA uncertainty impacts economic outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecast for Mexico from 1.6% to a mere 1.2% in 2026, and from 2.2% to 1.9% in 2027. The organization considers that the uncertainty surrounding the annual reviews of the USMCA over the next 10 years, until its potential expiration in 2036, will continue to limit productive activity, despite a projected moderate recovery at the local level.
Meanwhile, Toyota announced that it will relocate part of the production of its Tacoma pickup truck from its plant in Tijuana, Baja California, to the United States, through a 3.6-billion-dollar investment in San Antonio, Texas. The company indicated that the move is part of a strategy to strengthen its production capacity in North America and respond to demand in the U.S. market; nevertheless, Toyota noted that it will maintain operations in Mexico at its Guanajuato plant. This decision was viewed as a sign that U.S.-bound companies could be choosing to reshore to their country of origin.
Expansión: FMI rebaja su previsión de crecimiento para México a 1.2% en 2026
2. Federal Government highlights country’s economic strength
President Claudia Sheinbaum presented 12 macroeconomic and social indicators which, she said, prove the strength of the national economy. Among the data presented, key highlights include: 1) the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) reached a historic figure of 22,779,000 affiliated jobs; 2) bilateral trade with the U.S. reached a record high of 839 billion dollars; 3) industrial production reported a 2.1% rebound, marking its best level; and 4) since 2018, the monthly minimum wage went from 2,800 to more than 9,400 pesos, which aligns with reports from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) placing Mexico among the countries with the highest recovery in real wages over the last 5 years.
In the same vein, the global report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) once again placed Mexico among the world’s top 10 recipients of Foreign Direct Investment in 2025, with 41 billion dollars, an 8% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, headline inflation in Mexico moderated to an annual rate of 3.37% in June, marking its second consecutive month within the Bank of Mexico’s target range. This monthly decline was driven by a drop in the prices of fruits and vegetables, particularly tomatoes.
MVS Noticias: Presume Sheinbaum los 12 indicadores clave del Humanismo Mexicano
La Silla Rota: México vuelve al Top 10 en Inversión Extranjera Directa: informe
3. New diplomatic tension in Mexico-United States relations
The federal government is investigating whether the United States government lied about its role in the capture of drug lord Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. This follows a report by the media outlet Pie de Nota on July 2, which pointed out that the small plane used to transport Zambada to the United States is currently on display at an FBI fair, where the agency claims credit for the operation. The Attorney General’s Office (FGR) indicated that, if this information is confirmed, it would constitute potential violations of both Mexican and international law, while Mexico insists that it has not received all the requested information regarding the case.
In response, the then-U.S. Ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, reiterated that his country “had nothing to do with the plane, the pilot, or the operation.” The FGR, meanwhile, stated that Mexican personnel attempted to review evidence at FBI offices in El Paso and at the Santa Teresa airport, but were not permitted to carry out all the necessary procedures or access the required information. The case has revived bilateral tensions in a context already marked by drug trafficking allegations against Sinaloa officials and differences between both governments regarding security cooperation.
New York Times: México investiga el posible papel del FBI en la detención del Mayo
Infobae: ¿Quién es el piloto que trasladó al “Mayo Zambada” a EEUU? FGR confirma identidad y detalla qué ocurrió con él
4. Mexico continues to strengthen trade relations
President Claudia Sheinbaum received the President of the Swiss Confederation, Guy Parmelin, at the National Palace for a state visit held within the framework of the 80th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries. During the meeting, both leaders addressed the strengthening of investments, trade, scientific training, and international policy. The President highlighted the confidence of Swiss business owners in Mexico and the willingness to strengthen investments in strategic sectors for the country’s development.
Following the high-level meeting, President Sheinbaum confirmed the continuation of Mexico’s collaboration with the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), the world’s leading nuclear research center, located in Switzerland. In parallel, the European Parliament approved the Modernized Global Agreement between Mexico and the European Union, a step that, according to the Secretariat of Economy, represents a decisive advancement in updating the trade and economic relationship between both parties.
El País: México y Suiza estrechan lazos para fortalecer el comercio bilateral y las inversiones
N Más: Ratifica Parlamento Europeo Acuerdo Comercial entre la UE y México
5. Nubank strengthens its presence in Mexico
President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a 4.2-billion-dollar investment by the financial institution Nubank in Mexico for the 2026-2030 period. According to information released by the federal government and the company, the funds will be used to strengthen the digital firm’s operations in the country, expand its technological infrastructure, and develop new financial solutions.
This same week, the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV) authorized the institution to begin operations as a bank, after nearly seven years of working in the country exclusively as a digital financial platform. For Nubank, this milestone reaffirms its stance that Mexico is a key market, as it currently records more than 15 million clients, in addition to having a presence in 98% of the country’s municipalities, with 78% of its users living outside of major cities.
El Financiero: Sheinbaum anuncia inversión de Nubank por 4,200 millones de dólares para el periodo 2026-2030
El Economista: Nubank recibe autorización de la CNBV para iniciar operaciones como banco