VOLVER

1. US announces 25% tariff and Brazilian government threatens retaliation

The United States government has announced the imposition of a 25% tariff on a range of Brazilian products, citing what it describes as unfair trade practices. However, the measure exempts key Brazilian exports, including coffee, beef, and oil.

The Brazilian government condemned the decision, calling it a “regrettable milestone”, and said it will invoke Brazil’s Reciprocity Law, which allows for equivalent countermeasures, in addition to taking the case to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In an official statement, the presidential office also attributed the deterioration of bilateral trade relations to actions taken by the Bolsonaro family.

O Globo: Estados Unidos anunciam tarifa de 25% sobre produtos brasileiros, mas com exceções 
O Estado de S. Paulo: Governo Lula repudia tarifas dos EUA, fala em acionar lei de reciprocidade e culpa família Bolsonaro

2. Trade with China reaches new highs, boosting Brazil’s trade balance

Brazilian exports to China reached a record US$58.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up 22% compared with the same period last year.

Driven by strong demand for soybeans, oil, and iron ore, the result further cemented China as the leading destination for Brazilian exports, accounting for nearly one-third of the country’s total overseas sales. The trade flow generated a surplus of nearly US$20 billion for Brazil, playing a key role in maintaining the country’s positive trade balance.

Exame: Brasil bate recorde de exportações para a China no 1º semestre

3. ‘Fiscal bomb’ bill put on hold for negotiations between Lula and Alcolumbre

President Davi Alcolumbre has decided to postpone the promulgation of a proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would create a special retirement scheme for community health workers. The measure has been labeled a “fiscal bomb” due to its significant budgetary impact.

The strategic delay creates an opportunity for direct talks between Alcolumbre and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in an effort to reach an agreement that could reduce the measure’s projected R$27 billion fiscal cost before it takes effect.

Folha de S. Paulo: Governo pede, e Alcolumbre segura promulgação de pauta-bomba à espera de conversa com Lula

4. Finance Ministry raises 2026 inflation forecast and projects IPCA at 5.1%

Brazil’s Ministry of Finance has revised its official inflation forecast for 2026, raising its projection for the IPCA from 4.5% to 5.1%. With the revision, the government’s forecast now exceeds the upper limit of the central inflation target, which stands at 4.5%.

The ministry attributed the weaker outlook to continued pressure on food, fuel, and services prices, as well as to an alignment with the more pessimistic forecasts from financial markets.

Valor Econômico: Ministério da Fazenda eleva projeção de alta do IPCA de 4,5% para 5,1% em 2026

5. Canada targets Mercosur free trade agreement by the end of the year

The Canadian government has expressed its intention to accelerate negotiations and finalize a free trade agreement with Mercosur by the end of 2026. The goal was announced by Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Anita Anand, following a meeting with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira.

The initiative is aimed at diversifying Canada’s trade partnerships and represents an opportunity for the South American bloc to expand its access to new markets.

Poder 360: Canadá quer concluir acordo com o Mercosul até o fim de 2026