Brasil
August 1st, 2025
1. Donald Trump makes tariff hike official
US President Donald Trump has formalized the tariff hike he had been publicly announcing since the beginning of July. Starting seven days after the signing of the decree, products imported from Brazil will be taxed at a rate of 50%. The document excludes 43% of Brazilian items exported to the US. Exemptions include petroleum derivatives, iron, civil aviation products, and orange juice.
In response to Trump’s measure, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emphasized that Brazil has maintained a trade deficit with the US over the past decades. He also stated that he remains open to negotiating commercial aspects of the relationship with the country. As a show of support for Brazilian companies, Lula highlighted that the country’s economy is highly integrated with major international markets and said he foresees concrete actions to mitigate the impacts.
Lula gave an interview to The New York Times to address the diplomatic issue. According to him, Donald Trump is ignoring the Brazilian government’s signals to engage in serious dialogue. The Brazilian president defended national sovereignty and the judiciary’s freedom to act. Lula’s last interview with the American newspaper had been 13 years ago.
Folha de S. Paulo: Trump oficializa tarifaço de 50% sobre exportações do Brasil; lista de isenções tem quase 700 produtos, que livram Embraer e suco
Folha de S. Paulo: Ninguém está desafiando Trump como o Lula, diz o jornal The New York Times
2. IMF raises forecast for Brazil
Without taking into account the possible effects of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on Brazilian products, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised the country’s growth forecast to 2.1% of GDP in 2026. This represents a positive difference of 0.1 percentage point compared to the last projection made in the April edition of the World Economic Outlook report. For 2025, the projected growth is 2.3%.
The IMF’s projections are more pessimistic than those of the Brazilian government. The Ministry of Finance estimates a growth rate of 2.4% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2025. These calculations also do not take into account the potential consequences that the tariff hike could have on the country’s economy. Domestically, the Central Bank’s maintenance of high interest rates is keeping the economy in a state of gradual slowdown.
G1: FMI eleva projeção de crescimento do Brasil em 2026 para 2,1%
3. Brazil eases big tech regulation
Vice President Geraldo Alckmin met with representatives of major technology companies including Google, Amazon, Apple, and Visa to discuss topics ranging from legal certainty to innovation. This was the second meeting with big tech companies following the announcement of the 50% tariff hike on Brazilian imports by the US. The platforms presented a list of demands that will be discussed by a working group. The focus will be on the regulatory environment and the future of digital regulation.
Before Donald Trump officially enacted the tariff hike, the Lula administration had maintained that regulating big techs was non-negotiable, as it was a domestic issue related to national sovereignty. In light of the irreversible increase in tariffs, the Brazilian government signaled to the platforms its willingness to negotiate. According to government officials, this was an important gesture from the Palácio do Planalto to show that Brazil is open to dialogue.
4. Copom holds interest rate at 15%
In a unanimous decision, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) maintained the economy’s benchmark interest rate, the Selic, at 15% per year. The decision was anticipated by the financial market given the committee’s recent assessments, which pointed to a prolonged stabilization cycle. The decline in inflation and the beginning of an economic slowdown reinforced the Central Bank’s decision.
On the other hand, the United States’ trade policy still brings uncertainty regarding prices, according to the committee’s official statement. For now, the plan is to keep interest rates at the 15% level, but further hikes may occur if necessary. The rate is at its highest level since July 2006, when it reached 15.25% per year. From September of last year to May of this year, the Selic was raised seven times.
Agência Brasil: Copom mantém juros básicos da economia em 15% ao ano
5. Unemployment reaches lowest level since 2012
Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in the quarter ending in June 2025, reaching the lowest level since the historical series began in 2012. The result marks a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the quarter ending in February and 1.1 points compared to the same period in 2024. The improvement reinforces signs of recovery in the labor market. Market expectations had predicted a rate close to 6%.
According to data from the Continuous PNAD survey, released by IBGE on Thursday (31), the country recorded 6.3 million unemployed people between April and June. This represents a 17.4% drop for the quarter, with 1.3 million fewer people seeking work. Compared to the previous year, the decrease was 15.4%, or 1.1 million people. The scenario points to a positive trend in the creation of formal jobs.
Exame: Taxa de desemprego no Brasil cai para 5,8% e chega ao menor nível da história