May 24th, 2024


1. Inflation and Selic rates go up while GDP projection drops

Analysts’ projections for inflation and Selic rates in 2024 have gone up. Meanwhile, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projections have dropped, according to data from the Central Bank. Expectations are worse due to the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, the fiscal situation in Brazil, and interest rates in the United States. 

Estimates for the inflation rate this year have gone up from 3.76% to 3.80%. For 2025, the expectations for inflation went from 3.66% to 3.74%. The average projection for GDP growth in 2024 dropped from 2.09% to 2.05%. The basic interest rate (Selic) increased from 9.75% last week to 10%. For 2025, the growth projection remained at 9.0%.

Valor: Cenário da economia fica mais nebuloso para 2024 e 2025
InfoMoney: Boletim Focus: projeções para inflação e Selic em 2024 sobem e a do PIB cai

2. Unemployment in Brazil at 7.9%, the lowest level in 10 years

According to the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNAD Contínua) published this month by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the unemployment rate in Brazil in the first quarter of 2024 was 7.9%, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period of 2023, when it was at 8.8%. This is the lowest rate for the first quarter registered in the last 10 years. The previous lowest rate was registered in the first quarter of 2014, when unemployment was at 7.2%.

Although there was a drop overall, four states registered an increase in the number of people who are out of work: Rondônia (from 3.2% to 3.7%), Roraima (from 6.8% to 7.6%), Rio Grande do Sul (from 5.4% to 5.8%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (from 4.8% to 5%). In Santa Catarina, the rate remained at 3.8%.

UOL: Desemprego recua em 21 estados e no DF e chega à menor taxa em 10 anos

3. Medium-sized enterprises are the Brazilian companies that most often have businesses abroad

According to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), Brazil is the country with the second-largest entrepreneurship potential, behind only India. The GEM is a study conducted by the Brazilian Micro and Small Companies Support Service (SEBRAE) in partnership with the National Association of Studies in Entrepreneurship and Small Business Management (ANEPEGE).

Furthermore, research by the Dom Cabral Foundation on business internationalization reveals that a little over 50% of companies participating in the study belong to the manufacturing industry, producing from machines to equipment to food items. As for the size of international companies, 50.4% of them are medium-sized enterprises, with an annual revenue between R$ 4.8 million and R$ 300 million. Large companies represent 13.5% of companies with businesses abroad, and micro and small companies represent 12.8% each.

Terra: Pesquisa revela o perfil da internacionalização no Brasil

4. Brazil registers over 5 million cases of dengue in 2024, hitting a new record

According to the Arbovirus Monitoring Panel of the Ministry of Health, Brazil registered more than 5 million potential cases of dengue fever in 2024. So far, there have been 2,827 deaths attributed to the disease, while 2,712 are under investigation.

Minas Gerais leads the number of potential cases, with 1,431,174 cases. São Paulo is next (1,397,796), followed by Paraná (535,433) and Santa Catarina (288,212). According to the Ministry of Health, the high number of cases is due to issues such as climate change and multiple strains of the virus.

UOL: Brasil passa de 5 milhões de casos prováveis de dengue, com 2.800 mortes

5. Crisis in Rio Grande do Sul leads Brazil to import rice

The Federal Government, through the National Supply Company (CONAB), is planning to acquire the first imported supply of the 2023/2024 harvest. The decision to import is due to the losses caused by the floods in Rio Grande do Sul.

The government will acquire 104,035 tons of rice, spending up to R$ 416.14 million. The goal is to have the product sold to Brazilians at R$ 4 per kilogram. The product will have special packaging containing the suggested price for the general public.

Diário de Pernambuco: Crise no RS faz Brasil importar arroz, que será vendido a R$ 4 o quilo