VOLVER

1. FED maintains interest rate and indicates caution

The Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep US interest rates unchanged in March, amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty and inflation still above target. The decision reflects the central bank’s cautious stance in light of mixed economic data.

Inflation remains persistent, especially in sectors closely monitored by the central bank, while the labor market continues to show strength, without a sufficient slowdown to justify immediate rate cuts.

In addition, external factors such as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are increasing inflationary risks and reinforcing the Fed’s conservative stance. The central bank indicated that it will continue to monitor economic indicators before beginning a rate-cutting cycle.

Infomoney: Juros nos EUA: como o choque do petróleo pode impactar a decisão do Fed

2. ICMS cut on diesel

The federal government has put forward a strategic proposal to eliminate the ICMS tax rate on diesel fuel imports, a measure aimed at curbing the rise in fuel prices and mitigating inflationary impacts across the country’s transport and logistics chain. The initiative carries an estimated fiscal impact of approximately R$3 billion, requiring complex coordination with state governments, which are the primary recipients of this tax revenue.

The proposal comes at a time of pressure on the energy sector and seeks to ensure stability of domestic supply while reducing final costs for consumers and the productive sector. Its implementation depends on agreements within the National Council for Fiscal Policy (CONFAZ), where states are expected to assess the necessary compensations considering the projected revenue losses, balancing the need for economic relief with the health of local public finances.

CNN: Governo propõe zerar ICMS na importação do diesel; impacto é de R$ 3 bi

3. Services sector reaches historic high

Brazil’s services sector grew by 0.3% in January 2026, matching its all-time high level of activity, according to data released by the IBGE.

This positive performance was mainly driven by services provided to households and the transportation sector, reinforcing the area’s consistent recovery.

The result points to sustained domestic consumption and economic resilience at the start of the year, keeping the sector operating at peak levels. This stability reflects a favorable business environment, supporting GDP despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges.

Folha de S.Paulo: Setor de serviços cresce 0,3% em janeiro e iguala recorde, diz IBGE

4. Chamber of Deputies fast-tracks increase in MEI revenue cap

Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies has approved an urgency request for the bill that raises the revenue cap for Individual Microentrepreneurs (MEI), allowing it to be voted directly on the floor without going through committees. The proposal increases the annual limit from R$81,000 to R$130,000, an update long awaited given inflation and rising costs for small businesses.

The bill, already approved by the Senate, also allows MEIs to hire up to two employees, expanding these businesses’ capacity for growth. The measure received broad support from lawmakers and aims to bring more entrepreneurs into the simplified tax regime, reducing informality and stimulating the economy.

With urgency status approved, the proposal gains priority on the legislative agenda and may move forward quickly, although it still depends on political negotiations and an assessment of fiscal impacts before the final vote.

Exame: Câmara aprova regime de urgência para projeto que eleva teto do faturamento de MEIs

5. COPOM begins easing cycle and cuts Selic to 14.75%

Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) lowered the benchmark interest rate (Selic) to 14.75% per year, a reduction of 0.25 percentage points, marking the first rate cut in about two years. The decision, already expected by the market, comes after the rate had remained at 15% since June 2025 and signals the beginning of a monetary easing cycle.

The Central Bank highlighted that a more uncertain global environment, shaped by geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices, requires caution in conducting monetary policy. Domestically, the economy shows moderate deceleration, while inflation is showing signs of easing but still remains above target.

The monetary authority indicated that next steps will depend on the evolution of economic data, maintaining flexibility amid uncertainties. Lower interest rates tend to reduce borrowing costs and stimulate consumption and investment, but require balance to avoid putting pressure on inflation.

Exame: Copom baixa juros para 14,75% e faz primeiro corte em 2 anos | Exame