March 27th, 2026
1. YPF y el Gobierno prepara mensaje oficial en cadena nacional
A U.S. court ruled in favor of the Argentine Republic in the lawsuit over the expropriation of YPF, overturning the judgment that had required the country to pay more than $16 billion. The decision was handed down by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in New York and reverses the lower court’s ruling issued in 2023. The court concluded that the claims of the plaintiff shareholders were not admissible under Argentine law, finding that there was no violation of applicable regulations in the nationalization process. As a result, one of the main legal contingencies facing the Argentine government has been resolved, with a direct impact on the fiscal and financial fronts. The litigation arose following the expropriation of 51% of the company in 2012, when the government took control of the stake held by Spain’s Repsol without extending an equivalent offer to other shareholders. The lower court’s ruling had established a multi-million-dollar compensation award that, with interest, had escalated to levels considered critical for the public finances. In this context, President Javier Milei will deliver a message on national television at 7:00 p.m., in which he is expected to address the scope of the ruling and its impact on the Argentine economy.
La Nación: La Justicia de EE.UU. falló a favor por YPF y la Argentina se evita pagar más de US$16.100 millones
2. The EU and Mercosur will begin provisional implementation of the trade agreement in May
Effective May 1, the European Union and Mercosur will begin the provisional application of their trade agreement, following the completion of the final procedural step with the submission of a formal note to Paraguay, the depositary of the treaty. This measure will allow the main trade commitments between the parties to take effect immediately. “Provisional entry into force” means that certain provisions of the agreement, primarily those of a trade nature, begin to apply before their final ratification by all member states. In practical terms, this enables the reduction or elimination of tariffs, the establishment of common rules, and greater predictability for trade and investment, without waiting for full approval from all the national and regional parliaments involved. This phase will take effect between the EU and those Mercosur countries that have completed their internal ratification processes and formally notified their accession. Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay have already met this requirement, while Paraguay, which recently ratified the agreement, is in the process of notification. For Argentina, official projections anticipate a significant increase in exports to the EU, with an impact on both the agro-industrial sector and industrial sectors, as well as on strategic products such as energy and minerals. Before it can be definitively ratified, the agreement must still be approved by all EU member states and Mercosur countries, a process that involves navigating complex legislative procedures. Challenges remain regarding sector-specific sensitivities, regulatory requirements, and internal political debates—particularly in Europe—which could affect the timeline for the treaty’s full implementation.
IProfesional: El acuerdo comercial más grande de la historia entre UE y Mercosur entra en vigencia provisional el 1° de mayo
3. Economic activity grew by 0.4% in January and has risen by 1.9% year-over-year
INDEC reported that economic activity in January 2026 grew by 0.4% compared to December and rose by 1.9% compared to the same month in 2025, according to the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE). This data represents the first official measurement of the year and provides an initial indication of the dynamics of economic activity. On a monthly basis, the 0.4% increase indicates a continuation of the recovery, albeit at a moderate pace. Year-over-year, the 1.9% increase reflects an improvement compared to January of last year, amid a gradual recovery in certain productive sectors. Sectoral performance was mixed. Activities linked to natural resources, particularly agriculture, and certain services accounted for much of the expansion, while sectors associated with domestic consumption, such as manufacturing and commerce, continued to lag behind and show less dynamism. This sectoral divergence is currently limiting a more uniform recovery across the economy as a whole. The January data fits into a scenario of gradual recovery, in which the consolidation of growth will depend on greater momentum from the lagging sectors and on the sustainability of the improvements observed in the activities currently driving the expansion.
Perfil: La actividad económica creció 0,4% en enero según el INDEC
4. Industrial activity fell 3.9% in the first two months of the year, marking eight consecutive months of decline
Industrial activity in Argentina fell by 3.9% year-over-year in the first two months of 2026, according to the Industrial Production Index (IPI) compiled by the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL). The data confirms that the sector remains in a contractionary phase, having now declined for eight consecutive months. On a monthly basis, industrial production also contracted by 3.9% in February compared to the same month in 2025. However, the seasonally adjusted figure showed a slight improvement of 0.5% from January, marking a second consecutive month of growth in the adjusted series, though still insufficient to reverse the overall trend. Sectoral performance showed marked heterogeneity. Among the sectors with positive results, oil refining and basic metal industries stood out, while food and beverages remained stable. In contrast, the automotive industry once again recorded the largest declines, along with segments such as metalworking and the production of durable goods, affected by weak demand and lower levels of activity. In the January-February period, the 3.9% contraction confirms a negative start to the year for the manufacturing sector, in a context where the recovery remains limited and unevenly distributed across the various industrial sectors.
Infobae: En el primer bimestre la actividad industrial cayó 3,9%, según un estudio privado
5. Retail sales fell by 3.4% compared with February 2025
According to a report released by the private consulting firm Scentia, consumer spending in Argentina contracted again in February 2026: sales fell by 3.4% compared to February 2025. Compared to January 2026, the decline was 6.3%, a result partly explained by the smaller number of business days in February. The cumulative figure for the January-February 2026 period showed a 2.1% contraction, marking the sector’s worst performance since September 2024. Supermarkets led the declines with a 5.9% year-over-year drop, followed by independent grocery stores (-3.8%) and wholesalers (-3.6%). Pharmacies declined by 2.9%, while the department stores and kiosks channel recorded a 1.9% drop. The only segment to buck this trend was e-commerce, which grew by 29.7% in the first two months, driven mainly by food (+35.9%) and breakfast and snacks (+34.4%). By product category in supermarkets, non-alcoholic beverages led the decline with a -12.3% drop, followed by impulse items (-10.3%), perishables (-7.5%), alcoholic beverages (-7.4%), and hygiene and cosmetics (-7.0%). Household cleaning products recorded a 3.2% decline, while food sales fell by 2.6%. The decline in consumption is part of a broader context of declining purchasing power: registered wages saw a cumulative real decline of 7.3% between September 2025 and January 2026.