May 10th, 2024


1. Candidates promise accountability in appointments 

Before BBVA Regional Advisors, Claudia Sheinbaum, candidate of the coalition Sigamos Haciendo Historia, said that she will ask the current Secretary of Finance, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, to remain in office, in order to give continuity to the management of public finances. Likewise, she pointed out that it would be very positive if the current governor of the Bank of Mexico were replaced by another woman. The candidate pointed out that they will be “very responsible” with all appointments, especially in economic matters. 

On the other hand, Xóchitl Gálvez, presidential candidate for the Fuerza y Corazón por México coalition, stated that, if she wins the June 2 elections, universities and experts will participate in the appointments of members of the Bank of Mexico, the Attorney General’s Office (FGR) and the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN), for which she will propose open public competitions in order to put an end to the “a modo” appointments.

Proceso: Sheinbaum destapa a Ramírez de la O como su apuesta para Hacienda

Expansión: “Yo no quiero ministros mascotas”, dice Xóchitl Gálvez ante banqueros

2. Concern over possible power shortage

After several power cuts were registered in at least 10 entities of the country, the National Energy Control Center (CENACE) issued an emergency declaration, explaining that due to climatic phenomena, photovoltaic and wind power generation was affected, which resulted in a reserve of less than 3%, so that “it was necessary to interrupt the supply of electricity on a rotating basis.”

The concern about the so-called “blackouts” is that these have occurred mainly in towns in the north and center of the country, where economic activities are expected to be affected, due to the fact that this is a primarily industrial area, in addition to being a region with high temperatures, which have intensified due to the heat waves that have been recorded. The President has indicated that this situation is temporary; however, for the private sector, the issue reflects a structural problem of energy supply that must be solved.

El Heraldo de México: Reportan cortes de energía en al menos 10 estados

Forbes: Apagones: asunto transitorio para AMLO, un problema estructural para la IP

3. Remittances and imports from the U.S. shrink

Mexico remained the largest trading partner of the United States, with a 15.8% share, followed by Canada (14.8%) and China (10.7%). However, imports from that country to the Latin American nation registered an 8.1% decrease in the last month, as a result of the slowdown in the consumption of goods in the U.S., which suffered a deceleration and also affected the affected nations.

Another reflection of the slowdown in the U.S. economy was seen in remittances sent to Mexico, which received $5.21 billion in remittances during the last month. Although it is the highest figure of the year, according to the Bank of Mexico, for the first time since 2020, the volume of remittances fell in the annual comparison, by 3.3%. This is the sharpest decline in remittances since 2013. Despite the above, specialists agree that it is too early to talk about a slowdown in the U.S. economy.

El Economista: Exportaciones mexicanas a EU caen por primera vez en 11 meses

El Financiero: Remesas se quedan sin ‘punch’: Dólares enviados a México caen por primera vez desde 2020

4. Pensions for Well-Being Group installed

The Secretary of the Interior, Luisa María Alcalde, said that the Inter-Institutional Group for coordinating the actions of the Pension Fund for Welfare, which is made up of officials from various federal government agencies, has been set up. With this, progress is being made in the implementation of the recently approved pension reform, although the Ministry of Finance still needs to publish the decree to formalize the legal instrument that constitutes the Fund, for which it has 45 days to do so.

In this regard, a total of 727 public servants from several Federal Government agencies filed the first amparo lawsuit against the reforms to the pension laws that created the so-called Pension Fund for Welfare, for which reason the matter must still be reviewed. According to the law firm Trusan & Roma, Abogados, the public servants are filing this lawsuit “because it affects the way in which they decided that their resources would be managed in the future in the different administrators.”

El Economista: Proponen financiar reforma de pensiones de AMLO con ahorros de personas de 70 años que no reclaman su Afore 

Animal Político: Más de 700 servidores públicos presentan primera demanda de amparo contra creación del Fondo de Pensiones del Bienestar

5. Mexico’s growth outlook down 

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts a slowdown in Mexico to 2.2% in 2024, from 3.2% in 2023, and 2.0% in 2025. This is mainly due to the loss of dynamism of the U.S. economy and the uncertainty of inflation trends. However, the Mexican economy points to positive factors such as the strength of the labor market reinforcing consumption, as well as investment being supported by public infrastructure projects in 2024 and by the gradual offshoring of manufacturing activities to Mexico.

The International Monetary Fund also readjusted its growth estimate downwards, placing it at 2.4% for this year from the 2.7% it forecast in January, since the world is growing, but not at the pace it had before the pandemic. The head of the organization pointed out that “Among the emerging economies, the ones that are responding a little better are India, Indonesia and Mexico in Latin America.”

El Financiero: A pesar del nearshoring la OCDE prevé desaceleración de economía mexicana en 2024 y 2025

El Economista: México, entre los emergentes que mejor responden al contexto mundial: Kristalina Georgieva