April 25th, 2025
1. International agencies cut Mexico’s growth forecast
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecasts for the world economy and Mexico, estimating that the Mexican economy will register a contraction of 0.3% this year, a forecast that incorporates a 1.7 point cut over the expectation they had last January, which positions the country as the only G-20 country with a negative growth forecast. However, according to the Agency’s Deputy Director of Economic Research, Petya Koeva, “it is an average contraction that is not a recession.”
The World Bank also cut its expectations for Mexico by 1.5 percentage points, forecasting zero growth in 2024 due to the imposition of U.S. tariffs and the loss of opportunity for “nearshoring.” With these estimates, three international organizations, including the OECD, are forecasting a contraction of the Mexican economy this year.
El Economista: El FMI anticipa contracción económica para México en 2025 por impacto de los aranceles
Banco Mundial también recortó su expectativa para México; ve nulo crecimiento en el 2025
2. Ministry of Economy presents investment portfolio
Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon presented the Portfolio for Shared Prosperity, which encompasses the private investment projects with the greatest impact on job creation in the country. Estimated investments total $298 billion at the end of the current administration, representing 16% of the country’s GDP, across 1,937 projects registered so far in the 32 states, mainly in Baja California, Nuevo León, Sonora, Tamaulipas and Chihuahua. Ebrard pointed out that they are focusing on 446 water, environmental, energy, economic and infrastructure projects.
Grupo Modelo, the brewing company, announced that it will invest $3.6 billion for the 2025-2027 period. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo thanked Grupo Modelo for the investment and highlighted that this shows that the Sustainable Development with Wellbeing model works, as there is economic strength, support from the people and at the same time private investment.
Milenio: Portafolio de inversiones en México es de 298 mil mdd para este sexenio: Ebrard
Gobierno de México: Grupo Modelo invertirá 3 mil 600 mdd entre 2025-2027 como parte del Plan México
3. President Sheinbaum presents initiative for new telecom law
President Claudia Sheinbaum sent to the Senate an initiative to issue the new Telecommunications and Broadcasting Law, which would replace the current Federal Telecommunications and Broadcasting Law. The new law includes the prohibition of political, ideological, commercial or any kind of propaganda by foreign governments or entities. The bill would also eliminate the “reserved spectrum” of telecommunications, which refers to the spectrum used in the planning process, as well as include a complete title dedicated to the collaboration of telecommunications concessionaires with judicial authorities.
The initiative has been criticized by organizations in defense of freedom of expression, since it proposes the temporary blocking of digital platforms when a violation of the law is presumed, which has been denied by the President. The haste with which the initiative has been approved has also been criticized, since it was approved in commissions only one day after reaching the Senate.
4. President Sheinbaum seeks to scrap administrative formalities
President Claudia Sheinbaum has sent to Congress the initiative of the National Law to Eliminate Bureaucratic Procedures, which regulates Articles 25 and 73 of the Constitution and proposes to replace more than 350,000 existing procedures with a centralized, clear and digital model, operated by the Digital Transformation and Telecommunications Agency. The objective is to reduce by 50% the number of procedures, requirements and service times. At the state level, 300 unique procedures are sought and 100 in the municipalities, 80% of which can be digitized.
Among the elements of the initiative are the creation of a Digital Citizen File, which will store personal documents valid before any authority in the country, the MX Key, as a national digital authentication system, linked to the unique population key, and the Single Citizen Portal, which will integrate all federal, state and municipal procedures in a single platform. The model also provides for one-stop digital windows. In addition, the law repeals the previous Regulatory Improvement Law of 2018 and replaces the National Regulatory Improvement Commission, of particular importance for the creation of Mexican standards.
La Jornada: Envía Sheinbaum al Congreso iniciativa para eliminar trámites burocráticos
5. Inflation shows signs of rebound
Consumer inflation rebounded slightly during the first two weeks of April, but remained within Banxico’s target range, according to data released by Inegi. In the first half of the month, prior to the Easter holiday period, the National Consumer Price Index (INPC) had a biweekly advance of 0.12%, while at annual rate consumer inflation in Mexico stood at 3.96%.
This represents two consecutive fortnights of accelerations, although this period’s advance was modest compared to the 3.93% annual rate reported in the second half of March. However, no adjustments to the interest rate are expected from Banco de México, as inflation has shown to be within the agency’s range for four months.
El Economista: Inflación en México repuntó ligeramente a 3.96% en la primera quincena de abril