June 6th, 2025
1. Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs threaten Mexican exports
The 50% increase to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports decreed by Donald Trump puts more than $20 billion in annual Mexican exports at risk. The measure, in effect since June 4, affects close to 380,000 jobs in Mexico and jeopardizes investments of $7.5 billion in the steel sector.
President Claudia Sheinbaum called the action “unfair” and contrary to the USMCA, pointing out that Mexico imports more steel from the U.S. than it exports, and that many parts cross the border several times as part of integrated production chains. Although she avoided confrontation, she warned that her government does not rule out responding with reciprocal measures. For his part, the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, announced a trip to Washington to request that Mexico be excluded from these tariffs, as has already occurred with the United Kingdom. He warned that higher steel prices will also harm key industrial sectors in the U.S., such as the automotive and construction industries.
2. Participation in the election of the Judiciary in Mexico
The latest result of the National Electoral Institute (INE) count reported a turnout of 13%, equivalent to 13 million voters, to elect 2,681 justice imparters. The first position to be officially announced was that of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN), which revealed that Mixteco lawyer Hugo Aguilar obtained 6.2 million votes, 400,000 more than Lenia Batres, making him the next president of the Court.
On the other hand, the two magistrates for the Superior Chamber of the federal Electoral Tribunal will be Claudia Valle and Gilberto de Guzmán Bátiz, both profiles proposed by Morena in their accordions. Guzmán Bátiz received more than 4.5 million votes, 18% of the total, while Valle, on the other hand, has obtained more than 4 million votes, representing 15%. For the voting in this chamber, INE reported a turnout of 12.6 million citizens. However, the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal was one of the bodies least impacted by the judicial election. The magistrate positions that were elected on Sunday correspond only to the two vacancies the court had, while its other five members – president Mónica Soto and magistrates Reyes Rodríguez, Janine Otálora, Alfredo Fuentes and Felipe de la Mata – are going to remain in the positions they have held since 2016.
3. OECD forecasts GDP growth for Mexico
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) adjusted upward its growth forecast for the Mexican economy in 2025, estimating an increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.4%. This revision represents a significant improvement over the previous forecast of a 1.3% contraction for the same year. The change is based on the possibility of a reduction in trade uncertainty, especially if a rapid renegotiation of the agreement with the United States is achieved.
Despite this improvement, the OECD warns that growth and inflation expectations for Mexico remain uncertain due to its high exposure to the U.S. market. In contrast, the Bank of Mexico recently reduced its growth forecast for 2025 to a range of -0.5% to 0.7%, with an average estimate of 0.1%. The OECD also projects that inflation in Mexico will reach 3.4% by the end of 2025 and 3.2% in 2026, figures that remain above the central bank’s 3% target.
El Economista: La OCDE espera un PIB de 0.4% para México en el 2025
4. Local judicial elections. What do the results from Durango and Veracruz represent?
During the session of INE’s General Council, Morena and the opposition parties (PAN, PRI and MC) faced each other in a political exchange marked by the results of the June 1 judicial election, focusing the debate on the cases of Veracruz and Durango.
In Veracruz, the opposition denounced that the right to vote was conditioned, forcing citizens to participate first in the judicial election, which they described as “institutional blackmail.” In spite of this, Morena celebrated the triumph of its candidate in that state as a reflection of citizen support for the new judicial model. In Durango, Morena accused the state government – in the hands of the opposition – of operating with practices of intimidation, vote buying and coercion. However, the PRI and PAN responded that, even with the presence of federal operators such as Andrés Manuel López Beltrán, Morena did not manage to reverse the results or displace opposition control.
Milenio: Morena y oposición se enfrascan en INE por elección judicial
5. Mexico’s government analyzes the largest drop in remittances in 13 years
In April 2025, remittances sent to Mexico registered a 12.1% decrease compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching a total of $4.761 billion, according to data from the Bank of Mexico. This figure represents the most significant drop since 2009. President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that her government is investigating the causes of this reduction, including the possibility that immigration policies implemented by the U.S. administration are influencing remittances. Financial analysts also point to factors such as political-trade uncertainty in the United States, the depreciation of the dollar and seasonality as possible reasons behind this trend. The Mexican government continues to work with migrant organizations in the U.S. to better understand the situation and take appropriate measures.
Aristegui Noticias: ‘Se analizará’ peor caída de remesas en 13 años: Sheinbaum