REGRESA

1. IMF raises Brazil’s GDP forecast to 1.9% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upward its projection for Brazil’s economic growth in 2026, now estimating a GDP expansion of 1.9%. The adjustment, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the January forecast, places the country on a path opposite to the global trend.

While the Fund has lowered its global growth outlook to 3.1% due to the impact of the war in the Middle East on energy supply, Brazil benefits from its strategic position as an oil exporter. The rise in commodity prices is expected to add around 0.2 percentage points to national performance, offsetting weaker external demand and higher input costs.

However, the IMF warns that the international environment remains challenging. Oil prices above $110 per barrel could fuel global inflation and force central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer. Although the new projection is higher than the previous estimate, the 1.9% figure still falls short of the 2.3% recorded in 2025.

G1: Guerra leva FMI a reduzir projeção de crescimento global

2. Inflation forecast rises to 4.71%

The financial market has raised its forecast for Brazil’s official inflation (IPCA) for 2026 for the fifth consecutive week, increasing it from 4.36% to 4.71%. According to the Boletim Focus released by the Central Bank, the estimate now exceeds the upper limit of the target range, which stands at 4.5%. The adjustment reflects tensions caused by the war in the Middle East, which directly impact energy and transportation costs.

Despite inflationary pressure, the projection for economic growth (GDP) remains stable at 1.85% for this year. As for interest rates, analysts expect the Selic rate to end 2026 at 12.5% per year. The exchange rate is projected to close the period at R$5.37.

The Central Bank has not ruled out revising the current cycle of Selic rate cuts, currently at 14.75%, if geopolitical uncertainty persists. The monetary authority is closely monitoring the situation to prevent deviations from the target from undermining long-term economic stability and the population’s purchasing power.

Agência Brasil: Mercado eleva previsão da inflação para 4,71% este ano
 

3. Proposal links FGTS withdrawals to debt repayment

The federal government is preparing a significant change to the rules of the Severance Indemnity Fund (FGTS). The proposal, led by the Ministry of Labor, aims to eliminate the “birthday withdrawal” option, replacing it with a payroll-deducted credit model that uses the fund balance as collateral. Under the new guidelines, workers dismissed without cause who have active loans tied to the FGTS will only be able to withdraw the remaining balance after fully repaying those debts.

The measure seeks to reduce interest rates in the private sector and increase the fund’s liquidity, but it imposes stricter conditions for accessing the money in the event of termination. According to government sources, the idea is to prevent debt from compromising workers’ financial reserves in the long term. The proposal is expected to be sent soon to Congress, where it will face debate over its impact on employees’ freedom to access their funds.

CNN: Trabalhador só poderá sacar FGTS se conseguir quitar todas as dívidas

4. Retail posts modest growth and falls short of expectations in February

Brazil’s retail sector grew by 0.6% in February 2026, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Despite the increase, the result disappointed the financial market, which had expected a stronger performance. The outcome highlights consumer caution, driven by high interest rates and inflation in essential goods.

Essential sectors such as supermarkets and pharmacies supported the month’s positive result. On the other hand, credit-sensitive segments like home appliances are feeling the impact of expensive financing. Although the sector has posted gains so far this year, the pace of growth has slowed compared to the end of 2025. According to analysts, a stronger retail recovery depends on lower interest rates and improved household income.

Valor Econômico: Vendas no varejo brasileiro sobem 0,6% em fevereiro, abaixo da expectativa do mercado
 

5. Government formalizes proposal to end the 6×1 work schedule

President Lula sent to the National Congress this Tuesday (14th) a bill proposing the end of the six-days-on, one-day-off work schedule, known as the 6×1 model. The measure responds to growing pressure from social movements and aims to modernize labor legislation, prioritizing workers’ mental health and quality of life. The proposal suggests a transition to models that allow for two days off per week, without reducing salaries.

The text outlines gradual adaptation rules for service and retail sectors, which heavily rely on this system. In Congress, the proposal is expected to face intense debate between labor unions and business confederations, which warn of potential impacts on operating costs. If approved, the change would mark a milestone in Brazil’s labor laws in 2026, reshaping the country’s productive dynamics. The government argues that the new work schedule could boost consumption and productivity in the long term, offsetting initial adjustments.

O Globo: Lula envia ao Congresso projeto que acaba com escala 6×1