REGRESA

1. Oil prices rise due to tensions

Oil prices surged again following the escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, driven by uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire and peace negotiations. Brent crude rose more than 5%, while WTI climbed close to 7%, reflecting increased geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global energy transportation. The move reverses part of the reductions recorded days earlier, when signs of a truce had temporarily eased pressure on the markets.

The seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US and threats of retaliation have reignited fears of further confrontations, casting doubt on the continuation of diplomatic negotiations. Despite this, analysts assess that prices remain below the peaks seen at the beginning of the conflict and that, without a large-scale war, the trend may shift toward gradual stabilization. Still, the outlook remains volatile, with the market being sensitive to any new developments in the region.

Agência Brasil: Petróleo sobe 6% com temores de colapso do cessar-fogo entre EUA e Irã

2. Boletim Focus: Expectations for rise in inflation

The Central Bank of Brazil recorded another increase in inflation and interest rate projections, reflecting a more challenging economic outlook. The estimate for the IPCA in 2026 rose to 4.80%, while expectations for the Selic rate in the same period increased from 12.5% to 13%. This movement comes amid inflationary pressures linked to rising oil prices, prompting the market to reassess the pace and intensity of monetary policy.

Economic growth, however, remains largely stable, with a slight adjustment in the GDP forecast to 1.86% in 2026. Meanwhile, the exchange rate outlook was revised downward, with the dollar estimated at R$5.30. Overall, the projections point to a scenario of persistent inflation, high interest rates, and moderate growth, reinforcing a cautious market outlook.

Exame: Focus: mercado aumenta projeção da Selic de 12,5% para 13% em 2026
 

3. Workweek reduction gains momentum, but costs still divide opinions

The end of the 6×1 work schedule has advanced in the Chamber of Deputies after approval by the Constitution and Justice Committee, but the discussion is expected to become more complex in the next phase, with review by a special committee. Despite initial support and the measure’s popular appeal, the focus now shifts to the design of the proposal, particularly regarding weekly working hours, which may range between 36 and 40 hours, and how to implement the change without causing significant negative impacts on the economy.

The debate also centers on costs for businesses and the need for a transition period, which could last up to ten years, as well as potential incentives for the productive sector. While part of the business community warns of risks such as rising costs, increased informality, and lower job creation, supporters of the proposal highlight social benefits and improved quality of life. The issue remains unresolved, with ongoing negotiations aimed at balancing economic interests and labor demands.

CNN Brasil: Fim de escala 6×1 avança, mas debate sobre custo e transição se intensifica

4. BRB negotiates assets and seeks to stabilize its financial situation

Banco Regional de Brasília (BRB) announced an agreement with Quadra Capital to sell around R$15 billion in assets inherited from Banco Master, in a deal considered strategic to improve its liquidity. The transaction predicts an upfront payment between R$3 billion to R$4 billion, while the remainder will be structured through an investment fund focused on managing and monetizing these assets. The initiative is part of the bank’s efforts to reorganize its portfolio and strengthen its capital structure.

The operation comes amid significant financial challenges faced by BRB, which had been seeking alternatives to address problematic assets and cash flow pressures. In recent months, the bank even sold portfolios considered healthy to generate liquidity and avoid greater risks. With the agreement, expectations point to a stabilization of its financial position, although uncertainties remain regarding balance sheet transparency and the need for additional capital – both of which continue to be closely monitored by investors and regulators.

O Globo: BRB anuncia acordo com Quadra Capital para vender R$ 15 bilhões em ativos do Master 

5. Growth of the 60+ population drives a new wave of consumption and business

The silver economy already moves around R$2 trillion in Brazil, driven by more than 33 million people aged 60 and over. With the population aging rapidly, this group is consolidating itself as one of the main drivers of consumption and economic activity in the country, increasingly shaping market strategies.

This shift comes with changes in behavior and demands, including a stronger focus on health, well-being, tourism, financial services, and tailored solutions. At the same time, the role of the 60+ population in entrepreneurship is growing, often as an alternative to the formal job market, highlighting the need for training and business models designed for a more active, digital, and economically relevant audience.

Agência Brasil: Economia prateada mostra força de consumidores e empreendedores 60+