REGRESA

1. Proposal for diesel subsidy sees strong uptake among states

The Ministry of Finance announced that more than 80% of Brazilian states have joined the proposal to subsidize imported diesel. The measure, which offers an aid of R$1.20 per liter, will be equally shared between the federal government and the state governments, with each covering R$0.60. The initiative is temporary, lasting up to two months, and aims to curb rising fuel prices amid geopolitical tensions.

State participation is voluntary. Although most have agreed, some, such as Rio de Janeiro, are still assessing the budgetary impact. Each state’s contribution will be proportional to the volume of imported diesel consumed locally.

Exame: Mais de 80% dos estados aderem à proposta do governo de subvenção ao diesel importado, diz Fazenda

2. Public debt reaches highest level since 2021

Brazil’s gross public debt reached 79.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in February 2026, the highest level since October 2021, totaling R$10.2 trillion. The increase is mainly attributed to nominal interest, which added 0.7 percentage points to the debt stock. Interest costs have exceeded R$1 trillion over the past 12 months.

Despite the primary deficit of R$16.388 billion in February coming in below expectations, the nominal deficit, which includes interest, remains high, at approximately 8.5% of GDP on a year-to-date basis. The Net Public Sector Debt also rose, reaching 65.5% of GDP.

Folha de S.Paulo: Dívida pública do Brasil sobe para 79,2% do PIB em fevereiro, maior patamar em mais de quatro anos
 

3. Market raises inflation forecast for the third time

The financial market has raised its inflation forecast for the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) to 4.31% this year, marking the third consecutive weekly increase in the estimate, which previously stood at 4.17%. Despite the revision, the projection remains within the upper limit of the target set by the National Monetary Council (CMN), at 4.5%.

The revision comes amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. For 2027, the inflation forecast was also raised, from 3.8% to 3.84%. To control inflation, the Central Bank uses the Selic rate, which was recently reduced to 14.75% per year

Exame: Boletim Focus: mercado eleva projeção do IPCA de 4,17% para 4,31%

4. Petrobras raises aviation kerosene prices by 55%

Petrobras announced a 55% increase in the price of aviation kerosene (jet fuel) starting on April 1, 2026, due to the effects of the war in the Middle East on international oil prices. Aviation fuel accounts for between 30% and 36% of airlines’ operating costs, and the hike is expected to directly impact ticket prices.

Petrobras, which holds around 85% of jet fuel production in Brazil, sells the fuel to distributors, who in turn supply it to airlines and other consumers.

O Globo: Petrobras reajusta preço do querosene de aviação em até 56,3%

5. Government details 2026 budget freezeto de 2026

The federal government detailed a R$1.6 billion freeze in the 2026 budget, with R$334.4 million directly affecting parliamentary amendments. The measure, published in an extra edition of the Diário Oficial da União, aims to adjust public accounts and ensure compliance with the fiscal target.

Investments under the Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) were preserved. Among the most affected ministries are Transport, Entrepreneurship, Agriculture, Integration and Regional Development, and Finance. Federal agencies have until April 7 to indicate which budget allocations will be frozen.

Valor Econômico: Governo detalha bloqueio do Orçamento; emendas têm corte de R$ 334 milhões

April 2nd, 2026