REGRESA

1. Market lowers GDP growth forecast to 1.95%

The financial market has revised downward its forecast for the growth of the Brazilian economy in 2026, from 1.98% to 1.95%, according to Boletim Focus released by the Central Bank (BC), based on a survey of more than 100 institutions. The estimate points to a slowdown from the 2.3% GDP growth recorded in 2025, while the forecast for 2027 remained unchanged at 1.5%. In an election year, government measures aimed at stimulating economic activity and reducing household debt are boosting demand but could make inflation more difficult to control, a scenario the BC is seeking to contain through a slower pace of economic expansion.

The inflation forecast for 2026 remained at 5.02% for the second consecutive week, above the 4.5% ceiling of the continuous inflation target, despite additional risks posed by higher oil prices following the resumption of war in the Middle East. The market also maintained its expectation that the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, will end 2026 at 13.75% per year, amid the possibility of a final rate cut during the period. For 2027 and 2028, forecasts remain at 12% and 10.50%, respectively.

G1: Mercado financeiro baixa projeção de crescimento da economia em 2026 para 1,95%

2. Federal tax revenue rises 9% in real terms in July

Federal tax and contribution revenue totaled R$ 289.346 billion in July, representing an 8.97% increase in real terms compared with the same month in 2025, Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service reported. The result exceeded the market median forecast of R$ 284.6 billion and rose from the R$ 264.437 billion collected in June. From January through July, total federal revenue reached R$ 1.876 trillion.

Among the month’s highlights, Social Security revenue totaled R$ 64.215 billion, up 5.50% in real terms, driven by growth in the total wage bill and revenue from the Simples Nacional tax regime. Withholding Income Tax (IRRF) on capital income rose 29.47% in real terms to R$ 13.449 billion, while Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ) and Social Contribution on Net Income (CSLL) totaled R$ 64.922 billion, an increase of 4.52%, supported by quarterly financial results and presumed-profit taxation. Revenue from the IOF (Tax on Financial Operations), meanwhile, reached R$ 8.169 billion, a 19.35% real increase year over year.

Estadão: Arrecadação federal soma R$ 289,3 bi em julho, alta de 9%

3. Food prices fall for third consecutive month, but milk rises 23% in 2026

Food prices fell for the third consecutive month in August, according to the IPCA-15, Brazil’s official inflation preview. Food consumed at home fell 1.02%, while the increase in food consumed away from home slowed from 0.55% in July to 0.42%. The result contributed to a 0.40% decline in the overall IPCA-15 for the month, marking the first monthly deflation in a year. The decline was driven mainly by fresh produce, rice and meat: mangoes, potatoes, onions and tomatoes posted significant price drops, along with a 3.1% decline in rice prices and a 0.94% decrease in meat prices.

Despite the relief in August, food prices are still up 3.78% so far this year, with significant increases in products such as potatoes, which have risen 34.83%, onions, up 68.94%, and meat, up 6.47%. Long-life milk, meanwhile, rose 3.41% in August and has accumulated a 23% increase in 2026, driven by lower raw milk supply, higher prices paid to producers and the sector’s seasonal patterns. Fruit prices also rose by an average of 3.11% in August.

CNN Brasil: IPCA-15: preço dos alimentos cai pelo 3º mês, mas leite sobe 23% no ano

4. Household consumption intent falls 0.6% in August

The Household Consumption Intentions Index (ICF) fell 0.6% in August compared with July, reaching 104.9 points, according to the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC). The decline was attributed to uncertainty over the future pace of job creation and the risk of default in a financially strained environment. Six of the index’s seven components declined during the month, led by professional outlook (-1.9%) and the current conditions for purchasing durable goods (-1.3%). The only indicator to improve was current employment, which rose 0.1%.

Despite the monthly decline, the ICF was 2.3% higher than in August 2025, driven mainly by improved access to credit, more favorable conditions for purchasing durable goods and a stronger consumption outlook. Perceptions of future professional prospects, however, fell 9.9% year over year. According to the CNC, factors such as inflation remaining within the target range and lower Selic rate, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, were not enough to boost short-term confidence amid concerns about the labor market. The August decline affected consumers across all income brackets: the index fell to 102.5 points among households earning up to ten minimum wages and to 117.4 points among those earning above that threshold.

Valor Econômico: Intenção de consumo das famílias cai 0,6% em agosto, diz CNC

5. Government sets minimum wage at R$1,741 for 2027

The federal government has set the minimum wage at R$1,741 for 2027, a figure that will be included in the draft Annual Budget Law (PLOA), according to Finance Minister Dario Durigan. The adjustment will follow the rules established by law, which take into account inflation during the period and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth two years earlier, subject to the limits set by the fiscal framework. Durigan said the budget proposal is at an advanced stage of preparation.

The minister emphasized that benefits linked to the minimum wage, such as Social Security payments, will remain indexed to the new amount, with a focus on protecting lower-income populations. The PLOA is also expected to include the new framework established by the tax reform. Under the Constitution, the executive branch has until August 31 to submit the proposal to Congress, which must vote on it and return it for presidential approval by December 22.

InfoMoney: Governo confirma que salário mínimo será de R$ 1.741 em 2027