November 5th, 2021


1. Even allies criticized Bolsonaro’s inconsistencies at the G20 summit

President Jair Bolsonaro had no real agenda at the G20 Summit, which took place last week in Rome. This led to criticism even from allies and members of the administration, who said that the lack of meetings with leaders of world’s largest economies was “bad” and would damage the administration.

Jair Bolsonaro only had two bilateral meetings. One was a proforma reunion with the Italian President and host of the event, Sergio Mattarella. The second was with the secretary general of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Mathias Cormann, that did not produce concrete deliverables.

Although Bolsonaro’s isolation at the summit was expected, the lack of meetings was not regarded well by either allies or the opposition. The performance of Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos França was also disappointing. Some members of the administration blamed França for the failure at the G20 Summit.

In the last in-person G20 meeting in 2019, Bolsonaro met with the leaders of Japan, France, the United States, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore, as well as representatives from the OECD and the World Bank.

O Globo: Falta de agenda de peso de Bolsonaro no G20 é criticada
Correio Braziliense: Com agenda “à margem” da cúpula, Bolsonaro fica isolado no G20
BBC: Isolado, Bolsonaro tem agenda esvaziada e é ironizado pela imprensa italiana
Estado de Minas: Com agenda “à margem” na cúpula, Bolsonaro fica isolado no G20

2. Number of jobs generated in 2020 halved following data revision

A data revision made by the Ministry of Labor and Social Security published this week revealed that the number of formal jobs created in Brazil in 2020 was almost half of what the federal government previously claimed.

In January 2021, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes said that 142,690 formal jobs had been created, citing data from the General Register of Employed and Unemployed Persons (CAGED). According to Guedes, the number was “great news” amid the crisis caused by the pandemic and a drop in GDP.

Now, with revised information, we learned that only 75,883 formal jobs were created in 2020, 46.81% lower than the figure announced in January.

G1: Com revisão, número de empregos formais gerados no ano passado cai quase pela metade
FSP: Número de empregos formais cai para a metade em 2020 após revisão do Caged
Estadão: Número de empregos com carteira assinada cai à metade após revisões de dados

3. Chamber of Deputies approves Precatory Amendment Bill, making way for R$ 400 benefit

In the early hours of Thursday (11/04), the Chamber of Deputies approved the Precatory Constitutional Amendment Bill by 312 votes to 144. The bill had already been approved by a special committee. It represents an extra R$ 91.6 billion for the government in 2022, paving the way for the Auxílio Brasil social program that will distribute R$ 400 a month. The bill needs to be voted on again in the Chamber of Deputies before being analyzed by the Senate.

President of the Chamber of Deputies Arthur Lira (PP-AL) spent the day before the vote (11/03) trying to convince representatives to support the bill. To make sure members of Congress would show up to vote, a rule was approved to allow representatives on “authorized missions” abroad to vote remotely. Still, the bill was approved by just 4 more votes than the 308 votes required.

The Precatory Constitutional Amendment Bill delays the payment of government debts marked by the Justice System (precatory) to then pay the new benefit.

G1: Por 312 votos a 144, Câmara aprova em primeiro turno texto-base da PEC dos Precatórios
UOL: Câmara aprova PEC dos Precatórios, que abre espaço para auxílio de R$ 400
Agência Brasil: Câmara aprova em primeiro turno texto-base da PEC dos Precatórios

4. The R$ 7 billion 5G auction is the second largest in Brazil’s history

In the second largest auction in the history of Brazil behind the pre-salt oil auction, the National Telecommunications Agency (ANATEL) managed to sell every lot of 5G frequencies offered. The federal government will receive R$ 7.089 billion for the sale, a 247% increase over the initial bid. The auction took place on Thursday (11/04) at ANATEL’s headquarters in Brasília.

Claro, Vivo, and Tim bought the main frequencies. Newcomer Winity Telecom, which was created a year ago by Pátria Investimentos, also won a lot. Sercomtel Brisanet, Algar Telecom, Consórcio 5G Sul, and Cloud2U also won lots. The auction continues this Friday (11/05).

InfoMoney: Vivo, Claro e Tim vencem lotes de principal faixa de leilão do 5G no Brasil
G1: Vencedoras do leilão do 5G
UOL: 5G se torna o segundo maior leilão da história do Brasil

5. If presidential election took place now, Lula would win in every second round scenario

A poll from Instituto Ipespe published on Thursday (11/04) illustrates a similar situation to what other polling institutes have shown: if the presidential election was held now, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) would be elected. Lula was polled against four other possible candidates, including President Jair Bolsonaro.

The results of the poll – undertaken at the request of XP Investimentos – show that Lula would defeat the current president with 50% of votes against 32%. Lula would also win against Sergio Moro – who is expected to join the Podemos party as a candidate – by a similar margin. According to Ipespe, Lula would win with 54% of the votes compared to Moro’s 34%.

The numbers are also similar when Lula is tested against other candidates such as PDT’s Ciro Gomes, PSDB’s João Doria, and Eduardo Leite. However, the difference in Lula’s favor is greater when polled against PSDB candidates.

IG: Lula venceria em todos os cenários de segundo turno, segundo nova pesquisa
UOL: Lula se mantém à frente e vence em todos os cenários de segundo turno
Valor Investe: Lula lidera disputa presidencial, mas para de crescer, mostra pesquisa XP/Ipespe