REGRESA

1. Cautious interest rates and persistent inflation 

The Central Bank adopted a more cautious tone after reducing the Selic rate to 14.75% per annum, without signaling further cuts in the short term. According to COPOM minutes, the global uncertainty scenario, worsened by tensions in the Middle East and doubts about the US economy, makes it difficult to define a clear path for interest rates. The monetary authority emphasized that future decisions will depend on new data, especially regarding inflation and economic activity, reinforcing the need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer.

At the same time, inflation remains under pressure. The March IPCA-15 slowed to 0.44%, but came in above market expectations, with a strong impact from food prices. The result keeps the market concerned about the cost of living and contributes to the Central Bank’s cautious stance, as inflation expectations remain above the target. In this context, the process of lowering interest rates is likely to be slower, conditioned on price developments and the global economic environment.

Agência Brasil: Ata do Copom: BC não indica mais cortes na taxa de juros
Exame: IPCA-15 de março desacelera para 0,44%, mas fica acima da expectativa do mercado

2. Inflation under global pressuresob pressão global

The escalation of the war involving Iran has reignited fears of global inflation, with projections indicating that the average rate could jump from around 2% to as high as 6%, driven mainly by a shock in energy prices. Oil, which was close to $60 at the beginning of the year, is now around $100, putting pressure on fuel and production costs. This movement tends to reduce households’ purchasing power and squeeze corporate margins, although, for now, there are no signs of a deep global recession.

Despite the resilience of the global economy, the scenario is concerning due to persistent inflation and the limited ability of central banks to respond with interest rate hikes. In addition, governments may be forced to adopt relief measures such as subsidies, increasing fiscal risks, especially in developed countries. Thus, even without a severe economic crisis in the short term, the more lasting impact of the war may be the worsening cost of living and global public finances.

Folha de S.Paulo: Inflação global pode saltar de 2% para 6% sob efeito da Guerra no Irã

3. Plano do governo para problema do diesel enfrenta resistência dos estados

The Ministry of Finance’s proposal to subsidize diesel has raised concerns among state governments, mainly due to its fiscal impact. The plan includes a subsidy of R$1.20 per liter of imported diesel, with costs shared between the federal and the states governments. Initially, the federal government would cover the full amount, but it would later deduct the states’ share directly from the State Participation Fund (FPE), raising concerns about revenue losses and a lack of clarity in the calculations.

State finance secretaries argue that the measure could force cuts in essential areas such as healthcare and education, especially in states that are more dependent on the FPE. There are also criticisms regarding the political nature of the proposal and the lack of technical details, which increases uncertainty around its implementation. Full participation by the states is seen as a key condition, but there are still doubts about how the government would handle partial adherence, making the outcome of the proposal uncertain.

O Globo: Estados temem impacto fiscal e têm dúvidas sobre proposta da Fazenda para subvenção do diesel

4. Federal government considers adjustments to consumer creditr

The government is studying changes to revolving credit card debt amid rising household indebtedness, which already consumes around 29% of income, the highest level in two decades. Internally, the government believes that recent income gains are being absorbed by debt payments, reducing consumers’ purchasing power and generating political pressure, especially in an election year. Revolving credit has emerged as the main concern, with high default rates and monthly interest rates that exceed even the economy’s annual benchmark rate.

Among the measures under discussion are stricter limits on revolving credit interest rates, potential caps on other credit lines, and adjustments to private payroll-deducted loans, including the use of FGTS funds as collateral to lower borrowing costs. Although there is already a rule preventing debt from doubling due to interest and fees, the government believes this has not been sufficient. The initiative, however, is controversial: while it could ease the burden on consumers, the financial sector warns of risks such as tighter credit conditions and potential impacts on consumption if the rules become more restrictive.

Valor Econômico: Lula quer mudanças no crédito rotativo diante da alta do endividamento da população

5. Mercosur-EU agreement moves forwardnçaz Selic a 14,75%

The Brazilian government announced that the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union will provisionally enter into force on May 1, 2026, following the completion of the initial ratification stages. The treaty, negotiated for more than 25 years, includes tariff reductions, the elimination of trade barriers, and greater regulatory predictability, creating opportunities for exports, investment, and Brazil’s integration into global value chains. The measure is expected to expand access to a market of around 450 million consumers and benefit both agribusiness and industry.

Despite this progress, the agreement still faces resistance within Europe, particularly from countries such as France, which fear negative impacts on the agricultural sector. While nations like Germany and Spain support the deal for its commercial and strategic gains, criticism from farmers and environmental groups keeps the debate open. In addition, the text will still undergo legal and political review within the European bloc, which may delay its full implementation, even with the provisional application already planned.

G1: Governo diz que acordo do Mercosul com União Europeia entra em vigor provisoriamente em 1º de maio