1. Official inflation rate for March reaches 0.16%

The official inflation rate (IPCA) for March was 0.16%, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

A statement released by IBGE shows that out of the nine groups of products and services assessed, six registered a price increase in March. The more significant increase (0.53%), which caused the greatest impact (0.11 percentage points) was in the food and beverage group. The second group with the most significant increase was Health and Personal care (0.43% and 0.06 p.p.). As for groups that registered price drops, transport stood out (-0.33% and -0.07 p.p.).

The IPCA has an accumulated growth of 1.42% in one year and 3.39% taking into consideration the past 12 months, below the 4.50% registered in the 12 months immediately prior. In March 2023 the variation was 0.71%.

IBGE: IPCA foi de 0,16% em março

2. 2024 agricultural production estimate drops by 5.2%

The estimate for agricultural production (cereal, vegetables, and grains) in 2024 is 5.2% lower compared to 2023 production levels, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

This is an estimated reduction of 17.1 million tons. Overall, IBGE estimates a total production of 298.3 million tons for this year.

Climate conditions are one of the reasons for this drop in production. Furthermore, 2023 was a year in which many different climate-related events contributed to record-high production levels, which will be difficult to repeat.

IBGE: Em março, IBGE prevê safra de 298,3 milhões de toneladas para 2024
Globo Rural: Safra de grãos de 2024 deverá atingir 298,3 milhões de toneladas, diz IBGE

3. Federal government publishes provisional measure to increase renewable energy subsidies 

The federal government published a Provisional Measure that expands subsidies for renewable energy sources. The measure increases the deadline for renewable energy plants – especially solar and wind power – to receive full subsidies in wire usage tariffs.

Furthermore, the measure reduces the energy bill by 3.5% in 2024, with the payment of loans from distributing companies.

However, the measure has been criticized by the private sector, which expects future costs to be passed on to consumers. According to entities representing large consumers of energy, the cost of the government measure will be nearly R$ 4.5 billion per year, which will be passed on to consumers.

G1: Lula assina MP para reduzir conta de luz e ampliar subsídios a fontes renováveis em R$ 4,5 bi

4. World Bank expects Brazilian GDP to grow 1.7% in 2024

A report by the World Bank estimates that the Brazilian GDP will grow 1.7% in 2024. For the next few years, there are expectations for 2.2% growth in 2025 and 2% in 2026.

In the document, which assesses the economy in Latin America and the Caribbean, the institution says the region’s economy is overcoming inflation, but countries are still registering timid growth, especially due to challenges in controlling public spending.

G1: Banco Mundial projeta PIB do Brasil em 1,7% em 2024, mas alerta para aumento da dívida

5. Government promises to send tax reform regulations next week

The federal government’s economic team promised to send the regulations for the tax reform on consumption, which was approved at the end of 2023, to Congress by next week.

The approved tax reform amendment provides for the regulation of standards by complementary laws, to define the application of some of the provisions.

Among them are the rates of the new Value Added Tax (IVA), in addition to reduced or increased taxation, in accordance with the tax reform guidelines.

The government intends to approve the regulation in the first half of the year.

Agência Senado: Regulamentação da reforma tributária chegará ao Congresso na próxima semana
Valor Econômico: Regulamentação da reforma tributária deve ser feita em dois projetos de lei