Brasil
March 7th, 2025
1. Financial market maintains inflation and interest rates projections for 2025
The Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin indicated stability in economic projections for 2025, with economists maintaining expectations that the IPCA will end the year at 5.65%, above the 3% target set by the National Monetary Council. The Selic rate is also expected to remain at 15% per year, unchanged for eight weeks, reflecting the market’s poor perception of monetary policy management from the government.
Additionally, the forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth remains at 2.01%, while the exchange rate is expected to end 2025 at R$5.99 per dollar, with no adjustments compared to previous projections. For 2026, economists project inflation at 4.4%, the Selic rate at 12.5% per year, GDP growth at 1.7%, and the dollar at R$6.00, maintaining a scenario of gradual economic slowdown. The stability of these projections indicates market caution amid uncertainties in the fiscal and global landscape.
Veja: Mercado mantém previsão de IPCA acima da meta e Selic em 15% para 2025
Valor: Focus: Após 19 semanas de alta, expectativa do mercado para inflação de 2025 fica estável
2. Pharmaceutical retail sector grows by 11%, reaching R$158.4 billion in 2024
The Brazilian pharmaceutical sector recorded an 11% growth in 2024, generating R$158.4 billion in sales and selling 8.1 billion units, a 6.1% increase compared to the previous year. According to data from the Brazilian Association of Pharmaceutical Distributors (ABAFARMA), distributors accounted for 57% of the retail volume, selling 4.6 billion units, while direct industry sales totaled 3.5 billion units. In terms of revenue, distributors moved R$88.3 billion, representing 55.7% of the total.
Among the country’s regions, the Center-West recorded the highest volume growth at 6.9%, followed by the Northeast (6%) and Southeast (4%). In the South, the increase was 2.9%, while the North saw a 2.4% rise. Brazil ended the year with 93,700 pharmacies and drugstores in operation, with the majority located in the Southeast (36,700), followed by the Northeast (26,200), South (14,900), Midwest (8,900), and North (6,800).
Veja: Varejo farmacêutico cresce 11% e movimenta R$ 158,4 bilhões em 2024
3. Brazilian cinema achieves historic feat at the Oscars
Brazil made history at the 2025 Oscars with “I’m Still Here”, directed by Walter Salles, winning the award for Best International Feature Film. Based on the book by Marcelo Rubens Paiva, the film portrays Eunice Paiva’s journey in search of answers about the disappearance of her husband, former congressman Rubens Paiva, during the military dictatorship.
The film was also nominated for Best Picture, but the award went to Anora, the night’s big winner. Fernanda Torres, who played Eunice Paiva, was nominated for Best Actress, repeating the achievement of her mother, Fernanda Montenegro (nominated for “Central Station” in 1999), but the statuette was awarded to Mikey Madison.
The victory of “I’m Still Here” was widely celebrated in Brazil, with public demonstrations, especially during Carnival, and boosted sales of the book that inspired the production. This marks Brazil’s first win in the category after five nominations. The country had previously competed with the entries “The Given Word” (1963), “O Quatrilho” (1996), “Four Days in September” (1998), and “Central Station” (1999).
Agência Brasil: Ainda Estou Aqui vence Oscar de melhor filme estrangeiro
Splash Uol: 1º Oscar do Brasil: ‘Ainda Estou Aqui’ leva melhor filme internacional
4. Service sector returns to growth in February, driven by demand and hiring
Brazil’s services sector resumed growth in February after registering losses in the previous month, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 50.6, according to a survey by S&P Global. The increase was driven by moderate demand growth, despite inflationary pressures and high financing costs that limited a more significant expansion.
The consumer services segment showed the best performance, while finance and insurance were the only sectors to record a decline. The growth in activity led to the highest hiring rate in nine months, fueled by rising new business and optimistic prospects for the sector. However, companies faced a sharp increase in operating costs, particularly for food, labor, materials, transportation, and utilities, resulting in the largest price adjustments since mid-2022.
With the expansion of the services sector and industrial production, Brazil’s Composite PMI reached 51.2, signaling a moderate economic recovery.
CNN Brasil: Atividade de serviços volta a crescer em fevereiro no Brasil, mostra PMI
5. COP30: Brazil will push for faster Paris Agreement implementation to tackle climate challenges
Brazil’s presidency at the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), set for November in Belém, will be centered on multilateralism and respect for science, with a strong focus on accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement. Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, president of the conference, emphasized the urgency of the climate crisis, noting that 2024 was the hottest year on record and that adapting to climate change “is no longer a choice.”
COP30 will seek structural and advanced solutions, engaging both global governance and financial frameworks to combat climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, Brazil will work to deepen international cooperation, addressing structural challenges such as gender, racial, and ethnic inequalities, while strengthening the role of Indigenous peoples and local communities in environmental management and climate leadership.
Brazil’s participation will also highlight the need to translate a decade of the Paris Agreement into concrete results, building on the legacies of previous conferences and ensuring faster and more effective actions to tackle the climate crisis.