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1. Selic held at 15%, but Central Bank signals cut in March

The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) met in January 2026 and, as widely expected by economists, kept the benchmark interest rate, the Selic, at 15%. This decision reflects the monetary authority’s cautious stance to ensure inflation control, even as the Central Bank signaled in its statement the possibility of a Selic cut as early as March. The market is closely watching these moves, seeking clarity on the pace of monetary easing.

Despite the initial expectation of maintaining the rate, the Central Bank’s Boletim Focus already points to a revised projection of the Selic rate at 10% in 2028, indicating that the market expects high interest rates for a longer period. This restrictive monetary policy is also cited by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as one of the factors contributing to the reduction in Brazil’s economic growth projections for 2026.

Estadão: Copom de janeiro: Economistas projetam manutenção da Selic a 15%
Exame: Banco Central muda comunicado e sinaliza para corte da Selic em março

2. Impact of Banco Master case surpasses R$50 billion and Central Bank opens internal investigation

The collapse of Banco Master in 2025 continues to reverberate through Brazil’s financial system, with estimated costs already exceeding R$50 billion for the sector. This event raised red flags and led the Central Bank to open an internal investigation to determine the circumstances and responsibilities related to the case. The market is closely following the fallout, seeking to understand the impacts and the preventive measures for future scenarios.

As a result of events such as those involving Banco Master and Will Bank, Brazilian banks will be required to contribute R$5.5 billion to the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC). This measure aims to strengthen the FGC’s ability to protect depositors and ensure the stability of the banking system, reinforcing confidence amid episodes of fragility in financial institutions.

Folha de S.Paulo: Quebra do Banco Master já custa mais de R$ 50 bilhões
O Globo: Banco Central abre investigação interna sobre caso Master

3. Inflation shows signs of slowing down in January 2026

The Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15) recorded a notable deceleration in January 2026, rising by just 0,20%, the second-lowest increase for the month since the Real Plan. Twelve-month inflation stood at 4.5%, indicating easing inflationary pressures and suggesting a more optimistic outlook. The Central Bank’s Focus Bulletin had already pointed to a slight improvement in inflation expectations for 2026, with the IPCA revised down to 4.02%.

For 2025, data shows that inflation affected the population unevenly, with a smaller impact on lower-income groups and a greater impact on higher-income groups. However, expectations are that in 2026 inflation rates will become more similar across different income brackets, as monetary policy continues to work to control prices.

CNN Brasil: FMI reduz projeção para crescimento econômico do Brasil em 2026

4. Brazilian external accounts deficit reaches US$ 68.6 billion in 2025

Brazil recorded a deficit of US$ 68.6 billion in its external accounts in 2025, marking a significant increase of 39% compared to the previous year. Data released by the Central Bank reveals a scenario of greater reliance on external financing to cover the imbalance between the country’s revenues and expenses with the rest of the world. This negative balance largely reflects increased outflows in current account transactions, such as services and income.

Despite some minor discrepancies in the final reported figures, the essence of the picture remains: Brazil needs to attract more investment and capital to offset this growing deficit. The sustainability of external accounts is a crucial indicator of investor confidence and of the stability of the national economy in the medium and long term.

O Globo: Brasil registra déficit de US$ 68,6 bilhões nas contas externas em 2025, aumento de 39%, mostra BC
Agência Brasil: Contas externas têm saldo negativo de US$ 68,8 bilhões em 2025

5. Millionaires leave Brazil in 2025, reflecting a Latin American trend

Brazil saw the departure of 1,200 millionaires in 2025, a movement that aligns with a growing trend of high-net-worth individuals migrating across Latin America. This “wealth exodus” represents not only a loss of capital for the country but also raises questions about the business environment, legal certainty, and economic attractiveness for large fortunes.

The migration of millionaires is a complex phenomenon influenced by factors such as taxation, political instability, quality of life, and investment opportunities in other markets. The acceleration of this trend in the region signals a challenge for local economies in retaining and attracting high-value capital, which may impact development and domestic wealth accumulation.

Bloomberg Línea: Brasil perdeu 1.200 milionários em 2025 e fuga de ricos de LatAm avança neste ano