VOLVER

1. US and Iran tensions shake global markets

Financial markets experienced significant volatility after the President of the United States declared the preliminary peace agreement with Iran to be over, reigniting fears of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Investors responded by shifting toward safer assets, while Brent crude oil surged more than 7%, reflecting concerns over the potential for further disruptions to global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

The rising tensions also put pressure on international stock markets and strengthened the US dollar. Major stock indices on Wall Street and across Europe traded lower amid concerns that higher oil prices could fuel global inflation and make further interest rate cuts more difficult. Market uncertainty intensified following a new exchange of attacks between the United States and Iran, raising concerns about regional stability and its potential impact on the global economy.

G1: Mercados globais caem após Trump declarar fim de acordo de paz com o Irã; petróleo sobe mais de 7%

2. Dollar holds steady amid Middle East tensions

The US dollar traded close to flat against the Brazilian real on Wednesday following heightened tensions between the United States and Iran. Despite the increased risk aversion and the sharp rise in oil prices, investors remained cautious, assessing that frequent shifts in the White House’s messaging could limit stronger market reactions.

In addition to geopolitical developments, investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s first monetary policy meeting under the leadership of Chair Kevin Warsh. The document is expected to provide fresh signals about the future path of US interest rates, while rising oil prices remain in focus due to concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies.

InfoMoney: Dólar hoje opera quase estável após Trump decretar fim de acordo com Irã

3. Brasil busca acordo para evitar tarifas dos EUA

Brazil and the United States are expected to hold another round of trade negotiations by next in an effort to advance discussions before the US government makes its final decision on proposed tariffs. The Brazilian government has viewed the hearings held by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) positively but remains cautious as it assesses the potential impact of the submissions presented during the consultation process.

Behind the scenes, Brazil’s presidential administration has expressed concern over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s participation in the hearings, believing the episode could politically influence the Trump administration’s position. Even so, government officials maintain that the US decision will also depend on the technical assessment conducted by the USTR, while Brazil continues negotiations to try to overturn the proposed tariffs.

CNN Brasil: Brasil e EUA terão nova rodada de negociação sobre tarifaço

4. IMF raises Brazil’s economic growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its GDP growth forecasts for Brazil in 2026 and 2027, projecting economic expansion of 2.4% this year and 2.2% next year. Despite the upward revision, the IMF expects economic activity to moderate compared with its current pace, while noting that Brazil remains resilient and continues to outperform several other Latin American economies.

The IMF identified the conflict in the Middle East as the main risk to the global economic outlook, warning that it could weigh on growth and increase inflationary pressures through higher energy and food prices. The Fund also revised down its global growth forecast for 2026 and raised its estimate for worldwide inflation, citing ongoing geopolitical uncertainty as a key source of concern.

CNN Brasil: Desenrola adimplentes: Governo lança nova linha de crédito subsidiado

5. Market lowers 2026 inflation forecast

Brazil’s financial market has lowered its forecast for the country’s official inflation rate (IPCA) in 2026 from 5.33% to 5.30%, according to the Central Bank’s Boletim Focus. This marks the first decline in the inflation estimate after 16 consecutive weeks of upward revisions, although the forecast remains above the inflation target ceiling of 4.5%.

Expectations for the benchmark Selic interest rate remained unchanged, with analysts forecasting it will end 2026 at 14%, suggesting the possibility of one additional interest rate cut later this year. Forecasts for the benchmark rate in subsequent years were also left unchanged, while the inflation outlook for 2027 edged slightly higher and projections for 2028 and 2029 remained stable.

Agência Brasil: Mercado financeiro reduz projeção da inflação para 5,30%