August 21st, 2026
1. Economic activity rose 0.8% in June and marked a cumulative increase of 1.9% in the first half of the year
Economic activity rose 0.8% month-over-month in June, reversing the 0.6% decline in May, marking a cumulative increase of 1.9% in the first half of 2026. According to the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), the indicator recorded a year-over-year increase of 2.7%. According to the Institute’s data, twelve of the fifteen sectors included in the EMAE showed growth compared to the same month in 2025: Fishing led the gains with a 247.6% year-over-year increase, followed by Mining and Quarrying, which rose 15.6%. Mining and quarrying was the sector that most influenced the index’s rise, followed by Agriculture, Livestock, Hunting, and Forestry, which grew by 4.6%. Together, these two sectors contributed 1.1 percentage points to the index’s year-over-year growth. In contrast, three sectors recorded declines compared to June 2025: Public administration and defense, along with mandatory social security programs, fell by 1.5%; Electricity, gas, and water declined by 0.4%; and Education dropped by 0.1%. Together, these sectors subtracted 0.1 percentage points from the EMAE’s year-over-year result.
2. July marked both a fiscal and trade surplus
The government ended July with two positive results on different fronts: public finances and foreign trade. On the fiscal front, the national public sector returned to a fiscal surplus after a month of deficit. According to the Ministry of Economy, it maintained a primary surplus of $2.9 trillion and a fiscal surplus of $244,897 million, achieved despite debt payments of $2.7 trillion corresponding to foreign-currency bond maturities at the beginning of the month.The difference between these two results is explained by this: the primary surplus fell to $244,897 million once interest payments wereaccounted for. In the first seven months of the year, the cumulative primary surplus amounted to approximately 0.9% of GDP and the fiscal surplus to around 0.1%, compared to a target set with the IMF of 1.4% of GDP for the entire year. Part of the explanation lay in a 7% real year-over-year cut in public spending, although the reduction was not uniform: spending on the AUH (universal income per child) increased by 3.8% in real year-over-year terms. Regarding foreign trade, there was a surplus of US$2,115 million in July, bringing Argentina’s streak of positive trade balances to 32 consecutive months. Exports grew 14.1% year-over-year, reaching US$ 8,854 million, driven primarily by higher prices. Imports, on the other hand, fell 1.7%, to US$ 6,739 million. For the first seven months of the year, the trade surplus totaled US$ 16,080 million, more than four times the US$3,669 million from the same period in 2025.
3. The wage index rose 2.9% in June, with the informal sector showing the largest increase
The wage index rose 2.9% in June, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). The monthly increase once again showed uneven trends: the unregistered private sector led the way with a 4.4% rise, followed by the public sector at 3.4% and the registered private sector at 1.9%, in line with that month’s inflation rate but marking the lowest rate since February. The data confirms that the wage recovery remains fragmented: while informal employment continues to see the fastest pace of growth, the rest of the sectors are experiencing more moderate increases. Thus, on a year-over-year basis, wages rose 35.7%, but the gap between sectors widened: the unregistered private sector climbed 59.5%, well above the 29.6% in the registered private sector and the 30.1% in the public sector. Year-to-date, the overall index rose by 18.5%: the registered private sector increased by 14.5%, the public sector reached 17.6%, and the unregistered private sector once again led the way with 29.4%. Meanwhile, this week the government formally convened the members of the National Council on Employment, Productivity, and the Minimum, Vital, and Adjustable Wage to discuss a new minimum income threshold for workers covered by the legal framework. The current reference value for the Minimum, Vital, and Adjustable Wage (SMVM) is set at $376,600. At the last meeting, in November of last year, no agreement was reached, as the unions had demanded a raise to $553,000 by April 2026.
4. Milei reaffirmed his economic agenda and voiced his support for deregulation at the Council of the Americas.
At the 23rd edition of the Council of the Americas, held at the Alvear Palace Hotel and organized by Americas Society/Council of the Americas in conjunction with the Argentine Chamber of Commerce and Services, President Javier Milei defended his economic program and the deregulation process led by Federico Sturzenegger. He highlighted the slowdown in wholesale inflation, which stood at 0.8%, and noted that unemployment remains at 7.8%, in response to those warning about business closures and falling consumption. He argued that the disappearance and creation of companies is a natural part of the reallocation of resources in a growing economy. He also championed trade liberalization as a way to expand the market and lower prices, stating that “Argentina is the most closed market in the world,” and criticized sectors he described as “privileged.” Among the achievements of his administration, he highlighted the economy’s 4% growth in 2025 and improvements in poverty indicators. On the other hand, Milei linked the decline in the birth rate to the law on voluntary termination of pregnancy (legal abortion law), expressed his admiration for Elon Musk and the potential of artificial intelligence, and concluded with a distinctly campaign-style tone, expressing his confidence in Argentines who do not wish to “return to the past.” His presentation is part of a week packed with economic events, which will continue this Friday, August 21, with his participation in the ceremony marking the 142nd anniversary of the Rosario Stock Exchange. There, he will speak before an audience of representatives from the agro-export, financial, and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sectors, who are awaiting clarifications regarding export taxes and logistics infrastructure.
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5. The government welcomed the decline in wholesale inflation, as the Central Bank expects inflation to be lower in August
The INDEC released the Domestic Wholesale Price Index (IPIM), which registered a 0.8% change in July (a slowdown from June’s 1.1%) marking its third consecutive month of deceleration and the lowest figure in 14 months. Year-to-date in 2026, it has risen 16.6%, and on a year-over-year basis, it stands at 31.1%, in both cases below the CPI. The result stemmed from a 0.8% increase in domestic products and a 0.5% rise in imported goods. However, the 9.2% drop in crude oil and gas was decisive, as it subtracted 0.9 percentage points from the index; without that component, the monthly change would have been around 1.7%. These figures had repercussions within the government, primarily on social media, where President Javier Milei in line with his promises of single-digit inflation following his electoral victory in October 2025, celebrated the data without distinguishing between retail inflation (to which he referred in his statements) and wholesale inflation. Economy Minister Luis Caputo also weighed in, noting that the change was the lowest since May 2025 and the lowest for the month of July since 2019, and noting that the year-over-year increase in the IPIM was 31.1%, with rises of 38.6% in primary products, 29.5% in manufactured goods, and 45% in electricity. For his part, and based on this data, BCRA President Santiago Bausili estimated during the FIEL Premium Meeting that retail inflation in August would range between 1.8% and 1.9% (lower than the rates in June and July) based on high-frequency measurements.