Back

1. Financial market lowers inflation forecast for 2026

The financial market has revised its inflation projection for 2026 downward, with the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) now estimated at 3.95%, a slight decrease from the previous 3.97%. This change, released in the Central Bank’s Boletim Focus, reflects growing optimism regarding inflation control in the coming year.

The expectation of an IPCA below the 4% mark for 2026 signals a more stable economic environment and improved prospects for consumers’ purchasing power, although the Central Bank’s official inflation target for the period remains a challenge. Continued vigilance by monetary authorities and the evolution of economic indicators will be crucial to turning these projections into reality.

Valor Econômico: Mercado reduz projeção do IPCA de 2026 de 3,97% para 3,95%, aponta Focus

2. Brazilian economy grew 2.5% in 2025, according to preliminary GDP estimate

Brazil’s economy posted solid growth of 2.5% in 2025, according to the Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), a preliminary indicator of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This positive result consolidated a year of recovery and expansion. However, December 2025 showed a slight slowdown in economic activity, with the IBC-Br declining 0.20% compared to the previous month.

This temporary deceleration at the end of the year raises questions about growth momentum heading into early 2026, but it does not overshadow the strong performance achieved throughout 2025, driven by various sectors and economic policies.

Exame: IBC-BR: prévia do PIB cai 0,20% em dezembro de 2025
O Globo: Economia brasileira cresce 2,5% em 2025, aponta índice do BC

3. Liquidation of Banco Pleno deepens Master Group crisis 

The crisis surrounding the Master Group has intensified with the liquidation of Banco Pleno, ordered by the Central Bank. This measure will result in a payout of R$ 4.9 billion by the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC) to cover affected clients. The decision regarding Banco Pleno adds to a series of interventions, bringing the total number of financial institutions linked to the Master Group that have been liquidated by the Central Bank to eight.

The situation reflects significant solvency and regulatory compliance challenges within the conglomerate, impacting market confidence and reinforcing the FGC’s role in protecting depositors in scenarios of financial instability.

O Globo: Com liquidação do banco Pleno, Fundo Garantidor de Crédito vai desembolsar mais R$ 4,9 bilhões a clientes e Banco Central já decretou liquidação de sete instituições financeiras ligadas ao Master

4. GDP could be reduced by 6.2% with 6×1 work schedule

The proposal to reduce the workweek to 36 hours under a 6×1 schedule has sparked debate over its economic impact in Brazil. A recent study suggests that this change could shrink Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by as much as 6.2%, raising concerns among productive sectors and the government.

However, labor unions support the measure, arguing that increased productivity and improvements in workers’ quality of life could offset the initially projected losses. They hope that negotiations will include compensation mechanisms to mitigate negative effects on growth, seeking a balance between social well-being and the country’s economic health.

Folha de S.Paulo: Escala 6×1: redução pode encolher PIB em 6,2% – 16/02/2026 – Economia – Folha

5. Banks revise 2026 credit growth forecast to 8.4%

Brazil’s banking sector projects an optimistic outlook for 2026, with an expected credit expansion of 8.4%, according to data from the Brazilian Federation of Banks (FEBRABAN). This forecast signals renewed confidence in the economic recovery and in the repayment capacity of consumers and businesses.

A significant increase in credit supply could boost investment, consumption, and consequently Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Improved market conditions and the gradual reduction of interest rates are factors contributing to this favorable scenario, indicating a more supportive environment for financing economic activities next year

Valor Econômico: Bancos esperam expansão de 8,4% no crédito em 2026, diz Febraban