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1. US moves forward with proposal for a 25% tariff on Brazilian products

The United States has taken another step in its trade dispute with Brazil by concluding an investigation by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and proposing the imposition of 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods. The process, initiated in 2025 under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, determined that certain policies and practices adopted by the Brazilian government are harmful to US trade. Before any potential implementation of the sanctions, the proposal will undergo a public consultation phase.

The measure considers exceptions for certain products and does not yet represent a final decision, but it increases uncertainty in trade relations between the two countries. The Brazilian government has described the proposal as lacking consistent technical grounds and believes that, although the suggested tariff is considered high, other sanctions could have even more severe impacts. The outcome of the public consultation and diplomatic negotiations will be decisive in determining next steps.

O Globo: EUA propõem tarifa de 25% sobre mercadorias do Brasil após conclusão de investigação comercial

2. Subsidy keeps price of diesel stable and reduces price for aviation fuel

Petrobras announced an increase of R$1.12 per liter in road diesel prices, but the measure will have no impact on distributors due to the subsidy granted by the federal government to domestic refineries and importers. In practice, the subsidy fully offsets the increase, preserving the prices charged in the market. The government’s initiative is part of a broader package adopted to contain the effects of rising oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East, which have increased commodity costs in the international market.

At the same time, Petrobras reduced the average price of aviation kerosene (jet fuel) for distributors by 14.2% starting in June, equivalent to a drop of R$0.93 per liter. According to the company, the move reflects a stabilization in international prices after months of strong pressure caused by the geopolitical scenario. Despite the recent decline, aviation fuel prices are still up 54.5% in 2026, highlighting the persistent impacts of volatility in the global energy market.

G1: Petrobras ajusta preços do diesel de uso rodoviário em R$ 1,12; distribuidoras não terão impacto
Folha de S.Paulo: Petrobras reduz em 14,2% preço do querosene de aviação a partir desta segunda

3. Market raises inflation forecast and maintains interest rate expectations

Financial market projections for inflation have risen again, according to the Central Bank’s Boletim Focus. The estimate for Brazil’s benchmark inflation index (IPCA) in 2026 increased from 5.04% to 5.09%, marking the 12th consecutive increase, while forecasts for 2027 and 2028 also saw slight upward revisions. The movement reinforces the perception that the inflationary environment will remain under pressure in the coming years.

On the other hand, expectations for economic growth showed a slight improvement, with the 2026 GDP forecast rising from 1.89% to 1.90%. Estimates for the Selic rate remained unchanged across the entire forecast horizon, with a projection of 13.25% by the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, the exchange rate was revised slightly downward, with the market now projecting a weaker (cheaper) dollar in both 2026 and 2027.

Exame: Focus eleva projeção do IPCA de 5,04% para 5,09% em 2026

4. Pacote de crédito impulsiona economia e gera debate fiscal

The government announced a set of credit measures with the potential to generate at least R$27.25 billion in implicit subsidies, according to estimates from the Ministry of Finance. The funds will be directed toward programs focused on housing, vehicle purchases, truck fleet renewal, industrial support, and corporate financing, through credit lines with interest rates below the Treasury’s funding costs. Among the largest initiatives are financing programs for vehicle purchases by ride-hailing drivers and taxi drivers, an expansion of funding for the housing program, and new support lines for productive sectors.

Although the expenditures do not directly impact fiscal targets, as they are classified as financial expenses, experts and oversight bodies point to effects on the trajectory of public debt. The debate also involves transparency concerns, since part of the costs of these measures has not yet been officially detailed. While the economic team argues that the programs can stimulate economic activity and benefit specific segments of the population, critics believe that the growing use of subsidized credit makes it harder to measure costs and increases the challenges of managing public finances in the long term.

Folha de S.Paulo: Pacote de bondades do governo Lula prevê ao menos R$ 27 bi em subsídios ao crédito

5. Copa do Mundo deve impulsionar varejo, com destaque para alimentos e vestuário

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to generate R$4.32 billion in Brazil’s retail sector, a figure 6.5% higher than that recorded in the 2022 edition, according to estimates from the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC). The performance is supported by a stronger labor market, declining unemployment rates, and rising household income, factors that have helped expand consumers’ purchasing power even in a high interest rate environment. The expectation is that the event will strengthen consumption across various segments, reinforcing the role of major sporting events as drivers of commercial activity.

Supermarkets are expected to account for the largest share of sales related to the tournament, representing nearly 70% of projected revenue, followed by the apparel and accessories sectors. In contrast, the traditional surge in television purchases has lost momentum in this edition. Despite a recent slight increase in searches for smart TVs, interest remains below levels observed in the previous three Fifa World Cups, reflecting the impact of higher borrowing costs on higher-value goods. As a result, consumers are expected to prioritize food, beverages, and immediate-cons

Valor Econômico: Copa deve movimentar R$ 4,32 bi no varejo, 6,5% acima de 2022, diz CNC