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1. Inflation rises 0.70% in February, driven by education

Brazil’s Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which measures the country’s official inflation, increased by 0.70% in February, accelerating compared to the 0.55% rate recorded in January. The result was largely driven by the Education group, which alone rose 5.08%, reflecting the annual adjustments in school tuition fees at the start of the academic year. Other groups, such as Health and Personal Care (0.75%) and Transportation (0.60%), also contributed to the increase.

With this result, the IPCA accumulated a variation of 1.18% in the first two months of 2026 and 4.44% over the last 12 months. This latest figure keeps inflation within the target range established by the National Monetary Council for the year, which is 3.00%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points above or below the target, indicating a scenario that requires attention but remains under control.

Valor Econômico: IPCA acelera e sobe 0,70% em fevereiro

2. Price of oil surpasses US$100 amid new attacks and threat to the airline sector

This week, the price of Brent crude oil has once again surpassed US$100, renewing concerns about global inflation. The increase was a direct reaction to new attacks on commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, a region that is key to global energy supply. This geopolitical instability raises the risk premium and fuels fears of a possible disruption in supply.

In Brazil, the impact is felt directly in the cost of aviation kerosene (QAV), which follows international prices and puts pressure on airlines’ cost structures. The sector, which had been on a recovery trajectory, now faces the risk of a slowdown. In an attempt to calm markets and stabilize prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) signaled that its member countries are expected to approve a new coordinated release of their strategic emergency reserves, a measure aimed at increasing supply in the short term.

O Globo: Petróleo volta a ultrapassar US$ 100 com novos ataques do Irã a embarcações no Golfo Pérsico e Gasolina, diesel e querosene de aviação sobem à medida que a guerra no Irã estrangula o fornecimento

3. US inflation rises 0.3% in February, within expectations

Consumer inflation (CPI) in the United States rose 0.3% in February, bringing the 12-month increase to 3.1%. The figures came exactly in line with market projections, which was received with some relief by investors, easing fears of an unexpected acceleration that could force a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the U.S. central bank.

An analysis of the index components shows that housing costs and gasoline prices were the main drivers of the monthly increase. The so-called core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy and is more closely monitored by the Fed, also rose 0.3%. Although the data does not change the outlook that inflation is on a downward trajectory, they reinforce the cautious message from monetary authorities, who need greater confidence in the sustained convergence of inflation toward the 2% target before beginning the expected cycle of interest rate cuts.

Exame: CPI: inflação nos EUA avança 0,3% em fevereiro, como esperado

4. Brazil’s exports to the US fall 23% in the first two months of the year

Brazilian exports to the United States, the country’s second-largest trading partner, recorded a significant decline of 23% in the first two months of 2026 compared to the same period last year. The total value reached US$4.8 billion, a sharp drop from the US$6.2 billion recorded in January and February 2025.

According to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil (Amcham Brasil), the main reason for the decline was the sharp drop in sales of semi-manufactured products, particularly gold, which fell 78%, and pig iron, which decreased by 55%. This negative performance in the bilateral trade balance partly reflects a scenario of weaker demand and a cooling of the US economy, in addition to specific market factors affecting certain commodities. Despite the result, Amcham highlights that trade flows between the two countries remain robust and strategic.

Exame: Exportações brasileiras para os EUA caíram 23% no 1º bimestre, diz Amcham

5. Dollar projection for the end of 2026 falls to R$ 5.41

The financial market made a slight adjustment to its exchange rate forecast for the end of 2026. According to the latest Boletim Focus, released by Brazil’s Central Bank, the estimate for the US dollar exchange rate was revised downward from R$5.42 to R$5.41. Although marginal, the change represents the fourth consecutive reduction in the indicator, which stood at R$5.50 a month ago, signaling a gradual improvement in risk perception.

This trend may be partly attributed to the attractiveness of Brazil’s interest rate differential, which encourages “carry trade” operations. The report also states that the projection for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 was maintained at 9.00% per year, while expectations for GDP growth remained at 2.00% and inflation (IPCA) at 3.75%, indicating stability in forecasts for the other pillars of the country’s macroeconomic outlook for the period.

IstoÉ Dinheiro: Dólar no fim de 2026 passa de R$ 5,42 para R$ 5,41, projeta Focus