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1. Copom adopts a cautious stance amid rising inflation expectations

The Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) adopted a more cautious tone in the face of an increasingly uncertain environment and worsening inflation expectations. The Central Bank (BC) noted that recent data came in “significantly above initial expectations” and expressed concern about the de-anchoring of projections, citing the increase in the median forecast for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for 2028 in the Focus Report. The committee reaffirmed its commitment to combating the effects of the oil shock and said it will continue gathering more information before moving forward.

At the same time, Copom highlighted the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and maintained its indication that it intends to calibrate interest rates on a meeting-by-meeting basis, without committing to a long easing cycle. In the market, bets have increased on a 0.25 percentage point cut to the benchmark interest rate, the Selic, in June, while the likelihood of holding rates steady has declined. Analysts assess that the war in Iran is putting pressure on projections, but see the Central Bank as willing to make decisions based on data and the external environment.

Valor Econômico: Ata mostra preocupação do Copom com alta de expectativas de inflação

2. Beef exports may fall by 10% in 2026

Brazil’s beef exports could decline by around 10% in 2026 compared to 2025 due to tariff restrictions imposed by China, said Roberto Perosa, president of the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (ABIEC). According to him, production aimed at the Chinese market is expected to be halted around June, and the sector will need to expand domestic consumption to absorb the volume that will no longer be shipped to its main destination.

Perosa stated that there is no market capable of replacing China, which purchased 1.7 million tons in 2025 out of a total of 3.5 million tons exported. The association had previously been working with a more optimistic scenario, but now sees the opening of the South Korean market as unlikely in 2026. The sector is still counting on Japan and is trying to make progress in Turkey, where Brazil is negotiating the possibility of conducting batch-by-batch inspections rather than applying them to all meat exports.

G1: Exportação de carne bovina do Brasil pode cair 10% em 2026 com restrição da China, diz Abiec

3. Government delays payment of diesel subsidy

The government has not yet paid any of the companies approved for the diesel subsidy program, created to help reduce the impact of the war in Iran on Brazilian consumers. The first reimbursement, related to March sales, was due on April 30 but has not been authorized by the National Agency of Petroleum (ANP). Petrobras, importers, and distributors have already submitted invoices but are still awaiting data verification. The agency says it needs access to information from the Federal Revenue Service, in an agreement that is still under negotiation.

The delay increases uncertainty about the program, which initially saw low participation. The subsidy provides R$1.52 per liter of imported diesel and R$1.12 per liter of domestic diesel for companies that sell below the price cap. To attract more participants, the ANP raised this cap and published new prices for the fifth period, with an increase of R$0.28 per liter for imported diesel. Diesel prices rose after the war began but have declined over the past three weeks, although they remain above pre-attack levels.

Folha de S. Paulo: Governo atrasa primeiros pagamentos de subvenção ao diesel

4. Desenrola 2.0 targets household debt with banks

Enrollment in the new Desenrola Brasil program has begun and will be aimed at individuals earning up to five minimum wages, or R$8,105. The program targets debts related to credit cards, overdraft facilities, unsecured personal loans, and the Student Financing Fund (FIES). According to the Ministry of Finance, the average discount is expected to be 65%, with interest rates capped at 1.99% per month and reductions ranging from 30% to 90% of the original amount.

Renegotiations will be carried out directly with banks, and the program will remain open for three months. There is a provision for up to a one-month grace period before the first installment, along with the removal of negative credit records, and repayment terms of up to four years. The use of up to 20% of FGTS balances to reduce debt will also be allowed. Participants will be prohibited from placing bets for one year. In 2023, the first version of Desenrola Brasil benefited more than 15 million people and renegotiated R$53 billion.

O Globo: Quando começa o Desenrola 2.0 e quem pode aderir ao programa?

5. Interest rates for Reforma Casa Brasil fall and repayment term is extended

The National Monetary Council has approved a reduction in interest rates for Reforma Casa Brasil, a federal program aimed at renovating low-income housing. The monthly rate was cut from 0.99% to 0.82%, and the repayment term was extended from 60 to 72 months. The changes, which will take effect after official publication, aim to make installments more affordable and facilitate projects such as construction, expansion, and small renovations in the homes of low-income families.

The program is intended for families already enrolled in Minha Casa Minha Vida and uses resources from the Social Fund to finance the interventions. The government has allocated R$24.8 billion for 2026, in addition to R$10.7 billion already committed in 2025 and R$2 billion operated by Caixa. The extension of the repayment term is estimated to result in a subsidy of R$567 million. According to the government, the measure is also expected to boost the construction sector and stimulate employment and income.

Agência Brasil: Juros do programa Reforma Casa Brasil são reduzidos