REGRESA

1. FGC launches emergency plan to rebuild reserves after Banco Master impact

The Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC) has approved an emergency plan to rebuild its cash reserves following the impact caused by the liquidation of Banco Master. The goal is to ensure the liquidity needed to operate as early as the first quarter. The measure is essential to guarantee the FGC’s ability to cover future liquidations and protect depositors.

The plan requires affiliated financial institutions to advance the equivalent of five years of their future contributions, to be paid in three immediate monthly installments. It also provides for additional advances of 12 months of contributions in 2027 and another 12 months in 2028, totaling up to seven years of prepaid contributions. Monthly contributions to the FGC will also be temporarily increased by 30-60% for at least five years.

In parallel, discussions are underway regarding the possibility of allocating part of the required reserves on demand deposits to strengthen the FGC, which depends on approval by the Central Bank. So far, the FGC has already disbursed around R$ 36 billion to reimburse Banco Master’s creditors, and an additional impact of approximately R$ 6.3 billion is estimated in relation to Will Bank, whose payments have not yet begun

Agência Brasil: FGC aprova plano emergencial para cobrir rombo do Banco Master

2. IPCA rises 0.33% in January driven by higher gasoline prices

The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), considered Brazil’s official inflation indicator, rose 0.33% in January, maintaining the same rate recorded in December. Over the past twelve months, the index accumulated an increase of 4.44%, showing a significant acceleration compared to January 2025, when the variation was 0.16%. The main driver of the increase in January 2026 was the Transport group, which rose 0.60%, particularly due to a 2.14% increase in fuel prices, with gasoline up 2.06%, and fare adjustments for public transportation in cities such as Fortaleza and São Paulo.

In addition to Transport, other sectors contributing to inflation included Communication, which increased 0.82%, driven by higher prices for telephone devices and plan adjustments, and Health and Personal Care, which rose 0.7% due to higher costs of personal hygiene items and health insurance plans. On the other hand, the Food and Beverages group showed a slowdown, dropping 0.23% despite price increases in products such as tomatoes and meat. The Housing group recorded a decline of 0.11%, benefiting from a 2.73% reduction in residential electricity rates following the implementation of the green tariff flag. Regionally, Rio Branco posted the highest variation (0.81%), while Belém recorded the lowest (0.16%), influenced by lower electricity prices and airfare.

CNN Brasil: Inflação: preços sobem 0,33% em janeiro com alta da gasolina

3. INPC starts year with 0.39% increase 

The National Consumer Price Index (INPC), which reflects price changes for lower-income households, began 2026 with a 0.39% increase in January, according to data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This result represents a significant acceleration compared to December 2025, when the index rose 0.21%, and stands out even more against the price stability observed in January 2025. Over the 12 months through January 2026, the INPC accumulated an increase of 4.30%, surpassing the 3.90% growth recorded for the full year of 2025.

Looking at its components, food prices rose 0.14% in January, marking a slowdown compared to the previous month, while non-food products posted a more pronounced increase of 0.47%, driven by a stronger rise than that seen in December 2025. Regionally, Rio Branco recorded the highest variation (0.76%), influenced by increases in electricity and personal hygiene items. In contrast, Recife posted the lowest variation (0.17%), benefiting from declines in residential electricity prices and ride-hailing transportation fares.

Valor Econômico: INPC começa 2026 com alta de 0,39%

4. Nearly half of Brazilians believe economy has worsened over past year

A Quaest survey shows that Brazilians’ perception of the economy remains pessimistic. According to the poll, 43% of respondents believe the economic situation has worsened over the past 12 months, a percentage that remained stable compared to the previous survey conducted in January 2026. Inflation is a clear concern: 56% of citizens feel that food prices are higher, a perception that aligns with January’s IPCA reading, which posted a 0.33% increase and accumulated 4.44% over the past 12 months.

This sense of economic difficulty is directly reflected in purchasing power, with 61% of Brazilians saying they can buy less with the money they earn today compared to a year ago. Additionally, nearly half of respondents (49%) believe it is harder to find a job, which contrasts with official data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), indicating that the average annual unemployment rate in 2025 was 5.6%, the lowest level since 2012. This complex scenario suggests a disconnect between macroeconomic statistics and the lived experience of the population.

G1: Quaest: 43% dos brasileiros dizem que a economia piorou nos últimos 12 meses

5. Construction sector expects growth in 2026

Brazil’s construction sector is projecting a more optimistic outlook for 2026, with expected growth of 2%, according to the Brazilian Chamber of the Construction Industry (CBIC). This expansion, which would mark the third consecutive year of growth, is expected to be driven by factors such as a projected decline in interest rates, an increase in the supply of mortgage credit, and stronger infrastructure investments. Key highlights include the record FGTS housing budget, the relaunch and expansion of the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program, a new savings-based real estate financing model, and initiatives such as the Reforma Casa Brasil program, which foresees significant investments.

Despite the favorable projections, the sector continues to face persistent challenges, including a high tax burden, labor costs, and interest rates, which still weigh on the business environment. In 2025, growth slowed to 1.7% through the third quarter, even with positive indicators such as cement consumption, which rose 3.68%. Construction costs (INCC) also outpaced overall inflation, with labor costs increasing by nearly 9%. Nevertheless, the sector continued to generate jobs, closing 2025 with 2.9 million formal workers, while infrastructure investments, mostly private, totaled approximately R$ 280 billion.

G1: Setor da construção prevê avanço em 2026 com corte de juros, crédito e investimentos